719
FXUS64 KOUN 140900 CCA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Hot and humid conditions through at least Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the
  western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central
  Oklahoma.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Oklahoma
  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. But no significant relief
  from the drought for most areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward today. On the
northwest periphery of the ridge, stronger flow aloft will result
in increasing lee cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains. The
lee cyclogenesis will cause a deepening surface low and attendant
trough across the Central Plains, which will strengthen the
surface pressure gradient across the Southern Plains.

The strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy
southerly winds this afternoon with sustained wind speeds at 15
to 25 mph. Vertical mixing to ~700 mb will result in wind gusts
between 25 to 35 mph with the strongest gusts expected across
northwest/west central Oklahoma. The breezy southerly winds will
elevate fire weather conditions today. See the Fire Weather
section below for more information.

While the subtropical ridge will be centered to our east, the
heat will continue with an anomalously strong low-level thermal
ridge across the western/northwestern side of the subtropical
ridge. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to mid 100s
deg F, which is ~15 deg F above normal for mid-September. Heat
indices might be a touch lower than yesterday with the worst
conditions expected across southeast/east central Oklahoma, where
a Heat Advisory remains in effect. However, even outside the Heat
Advisory, its going to be a hot day for mid-September.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The relentless heat wave will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday
with the Southern Plains on the western periphery of the ~595+
dam subtropical ridge. The anomalously strong low-level thermal
ridge will continue to remain in place, which will result in high
temperatures in the mid 90s to the mid 100s deg F.

A cold front will shift toward northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, as this region will be on the
periphery of the subtropical ridge, near stronger flow aloft.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the boundary, with
the potential for appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across
northwest Oklahoma. With the strong ridge in place, the cold front
will likely stall and dissipate during the day Wednesday before
it makes much progress into northwest Oklahoma (hence why the heat
wave will continue).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

There is high confidence that above-normal temperatures will
persist through at least Friday, reinforced by bias-corrected
probabilistic guidance indicating that even the 10th percentile
remains above normal during this period. Global deterministic
models and their ensemble members are in strong agreement that the
subtropical ridge will remain the primary influence on our
weather.

Ensemble spread increases among the global models and their
ensemble members by the weekend into next week (September 19-21),
which indicates the potential for a pattern change. There is a
chance the subtropical ridge will break down as a mid-level trough
digs across the Plains, driving a cold front southward into the
Southern Plains.

Sunday currently appears to be the most probable timeframe for
the cold front passage. That said, deterministic and ensemble
guidance over the past couple days has shown a distinct trend
toward a slower frontal timing. Probabilistic guidance highlights
this forecast uncertainty, indicating a 20 to 75% probability of
maximum temperatures remaining below 90 deg F on Sunday (20%
southeast to 75% north). The cooler end of guidance reflects a low
to moderate probability (5% southeast to 40% north) of high
temperatures staying below 80 deg F. Nevertheless, a reasonable
chance persists for high temperatures to top at least 90 deg F
(25% north to 80% southeast) should the frontal timing continue to
slow down. The first day of fall is Tuesday, September 22, so
perhaps we`ll see a timely front sometime by then.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
South winds will become gustier and veer slightly from mid
morning Monday through late afternoon, especially across
western/northwestern OK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The total fire environment (weather + fuels) this afternoon will
support heavy initial attack fires and large fires across western
Oklahoma, western north Texas, and into portions of central
Oklahoma.

The worst fire weather conditions will be across northwest into
west central Oklahoma, where the strongest southerly winds are
expected (15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) along with minimum
relative humidity between 20 to 25%. However, the worst fire
weather conditions will not be aligned with the most volatile
fuels. Northwest Oklahoma received a wetting rainfall in the last
24 to 48 hours across portions of Harper, Ellis, Woodward, and
Woods counties.

The most volatile fuels are across southwest and portions of
central Oklahoma and western north Texas. These areas have not
received appreciable rainfall for an extended period of time and
there have been very hot wildfires per 3.9 micron shortwave window
IR satellite imagery (>100 deg C) in recent days across this
region. Therefore, given the weather and fuels are not completely
aligned, opted to issue a large Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for
western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central
Oklahoma to account for both the worst weather conditions and most
volatile fuels.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  78 101  77 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 102  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  76  99  68 /   0   0  50  70
Ponca City OK     96  75  97  73 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK        102  77 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ032-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08