237
FXUS64 KOUN 011732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Chance for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Monday
   afternoon and evening.

 - Warmest day expected to be Wednesday with highs back in the 80s
   to low 90.

 - Cold fronts expected to move through on Tuesday, Wednesday
   night and Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Expect patchy fog to develop later tonight across portions of
western into central Oklahoma and western north Texas, in locations
that have remained, for the most part, clear overnight. The fog may
last a few hours past sunrise with visibility in some locations
dropping as low as a mile at times.

In addition, some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm
will remain possible early this morning along and east of I-35, with
highest chances across southeast Oklahoma.

Otherwise, will be watching a shortwave trough drop south through
the southern Plains this afternoon with an associated weak surface
front. Models are showing an environment along and south of the
surface front developing modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg CAPE)
along with deep-layer shear of 30-35kts. Although the best forcing
is expected to remain east of the area later today, a few storms
may develop along the front across southern Kansas and propagate
southward into northern Oklahoma by mid/late afternoon and then
move toward the I-40 corridor by early evening, with at least some
potential for a few strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A few of these stronger storms may linger into this evening before
weakening as the chances shift south through the night. Again, main
best chance will be east of the I-35 corridor.

As the upper trough swings south and east we get a bit of a
reinforcing shot of some slightly cooler air filtering south behind
the surface front. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures
for Tuesday, especially across central and northern Oklahoma.

Weak surface ridge will shift south by early Wednesday with a return
of southerly flow during the day. Boundary layer flow will be quit
veered and bring warmer air back north and east across the area.
This will be in advance of a stronger cold front expected Wednesday
night. A much warmer day expected Wednesday as highs climb back into
the mid/upper 80s and lower 90s.

As mentioned above, a cold front, associated with a larger scale
trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, will
sweep south Wednesday night. There is a low-end chance for a few
showers along the front as it moves through the area Wednesday
night, but otherwise dry and cooler conditions will follow the front
in for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Again, main impacts from the front Thursday will be felt across
central and northern Oklahoma where temperatures will only rise into
the upper 70s for afternoon highs.

Another large upper trough dives southeast through the Great Lakes
region Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, associated surface
cold front will move south through the area bringing additional rain
chances Friday into Saturday. Rain chances continue into Sunday as
southerly return flow and associated warm air advection develops
in advance of shortwave moving through the Rockies. This will also
keep temperatures below normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A narrow band of thicker cloud cover with mostly MVFR ceilings is
located almost exactly along the I-35 corridor this afternoon. The
general trend has been for this band to decay, and expect ceilings
to largely return to VFR around 19-20Z. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to move southward out of
Kansas this evening and tonight into our northern and western
zones. Included PROB30s for this risk at multiple TAF sites. The
chance for fog development tomorrow seems a little lower than it
was this morning given light northerly winds, but with RH trending
toward 100%, included MVFR ceilings and fog in areas that have
seen that over the last week.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  78  61  85 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  85  59  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  86  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  80  57  91 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  78  58  87 /  30  10   0  10
Durant OK         67  85  63  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04