500
FXUS64 KOUN 302303
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances continue today and into Saturday. Highest rain
  totals western and northern OK.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday night into early next week,
  some severe storms possible Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area today. The zone of best large scale ascent will be focused
along western Oklahoma and western north Texas, which is where we
can also expect consistent coverage of showers through the evening
hours. 12Z ROAB from OUN showed a very deep and saturated
profile, which contributed to a precipitable water (PWAT) value
of 1.58 inches. This value beats the daily max record of 1.52
inches. That being said, any stronger showers that develop will
have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inches per
hour.

The aforementioned lift will move off to the northeast gradually
through the overnight hours. Cloud cover will stick around this
evening, so expect temperatures to be in the 50s for most of the
area.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Another shortwave trough will move through the southern Plains on
Saturday, which will help fuel continuous rain chances through
most of Saturday. This wave will move off to the east by Saturday
night, so expecting rain chances to decrease from west to east
through the day Saturday.

Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the weekend.
With lingering cloud cover, temperatures Saturday will be in the
60s, with a slight uptick in afternoon highs on Sunday into the
70s.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Monday, our attention quickly turns to a more robust storm system
taking shape across the southwest as two storm systems, one in the
southern branch and one in the northern branch approach from the
west. Although some timing issues remain, there looks to be
sufficient moisture and temperature profiles(1000-1500 CAPE) and
somewhat favorable winds fields(better wrt both fields in the 12Z
ECMWF) that severe weather would be possible. Although the storm
system moves quickly, there could be some heavy rainfall with this
activity as well. Currently the more widespread heavy rainfall looks
to occur across eastern Oklahoma and from the Ozarks into northeast
Texas Monday night and Tuesday.

As the wave moves by, an associated cold front will sweep south
across the area bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures
for Tuesday with some lingering showers possible. After highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s Monday, highs will be in the 60s and lower
70s Tuesday.

By Tuesday night the system develops a closed low across the Ozarks
region and then slowly shifts east through Thursday. This will
maintain a northerly wind across Oklahoma and north Texas through
Wednesday and potentially into Thursday before shifting back to the
south. This will keep temperatures from rebounding with highs
remaining in the 60s and lower 70s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Two main waves of rain can be seen on radar across the area right
now. The first is in northern and northwest Oklahoma moving
northward. Reductions in ceiling below 1,500 are occurring and
will continue until that wave moves north into Kansas. Another
wave of showers and lighter rain is in western north Texas and
moving northward. It looks like skies will generally remain VFR
with this wave though we could see ceilings start to drop after
the sun goes down. More widespread MVFR ceilings are expected
after daybreak tomorrow morning, alone with lingering showers near
I-35.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  70  58  75 /  40  20  10  10
Hobart OK         55  68  57  74 /  70  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  57  72  59  79 /  60  20  20  20
Gage OK           51  64  54  71 /  80  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     57  70  56  75 /  60  20  10  20
Durant OK         59  74  60  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04