403
FXUS64 KOUN 021701
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening.

 - Warmest day expected to be Wednesday with highs back in the 80s
   to mid 90s.

 - Cold fronts expected to move through on today, Wednesday
   night, and Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A weak cold front will continue to move across the area today. There
are a few showers currently moving across parts northwest and west
central OK. Low (15-25%) chances will continue through at least the
early morning hours across parts of northern, western, and central
OK. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible (10-
20% chance) during the day today but mainly confined to eastern
parts of the fa, generally along and east of I-35. Much of the fa is
expected to remain dry today into tonight.

With the front moving through, temperatures are expected to remain
below average. Highs are expected to climb into the 80s to around 90
across the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Rain chances are expected to end early this evening with most of the
night remaining dry. Lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

South to southwest winds are expected to return to the area
Wednesday with a low level thermal ridge expanding into the area.
The southwesterly winds and thermal ridge will likely lead to the
warmest day of the week for many locations with highs in the 90s in
western parts of the area to the mid 80s in eastern parts of the fa.

Models show NW flow aloft continuing over the region with a
shortwave moving through the long wave trough over the eastern U.S.
This shortwave will cause another cold front to move across the area
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Shower/storm development
will be possible along the front Wednesday evening. Instability of
1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and decent shear is expected to develop
Wednesday which means some strong to severe storms could be possible
Wednesday evening with damaging winds and hail possible. The
intensity and amount of showers/storms is expected to diminish late
Wednesday evening/overnight.

Right now, Thursday appears to be dry. The cooler and drier airmass
that moves into the area behind the front will result in cooler
temperatures during the day Thursday except for southwest parts of
the fa. Highs are expected to range from around 80 in north central
OK to the low/mid 90s in southwest OK and western north TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Another cold front is expected to move across the area Friday as a
stronger shortwave rotates across the northern Plains into the Great
Lakes region. Showers/storms will be possible with this front Friday
into Saturday. Models differ over the weekend into early next week
so a lot of uncertainty but it looks like rain chances could
continue across the area over the weekend into early next week.

With the front moving across the area Friday, a fairly decent
temperature gradient is forecast across the area with highs in the
mid 70s across northern OK and in the upper 80s/low 90s along the
Red River. Temperatures over the weekend into early next week will
once again be well below average with highs back into the 70s and
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Mostly VFR at this point, though MVFR ceilings between 2,000 and
3,000 feet are still noted at spots in central and northern
Oklahoma. Expect those ceilings to generally get above 3,000 feet
as cloud cover thins and lifts this afternoon. A few more showers
are possible, particularly in southeastern Oklahoma through
nightfall. Fog chances look to be lower tomorrow than today with
less moisture depth, but added mentions for radiation fog to TAFs
near I-35.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  86  63  82 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         61  93  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  89  66  91 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           58  92  57  84 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     60  87  58  80 /   0  10  30   0
Durant OK         65  88  65  90 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04