033
FXUS64 KOUN 132253
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

  - Rain will be ending across the area tonight.

  - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions return Tuesday
    through Friday.

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Saturday
    with the next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Widespread showers are ongoing across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough, moisture from the
remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond, isentropic ascent, and a cold
front are all the synoptic-scale features aiding in the
development of the ongoing rain.

The most persistent rainfall is expected across north central
Oklahoma with more scattered activity farther south. It`s the type
of day where many locations will receive rainfall, but the
rainfall amounts for most spots will be light.

The cloud cover, rain, and cold front will result in a cool
afternoon for many locations with temperatures across the
northwest half to two-thirds of the area only in the 60s and 70s
deg F. South central/southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Texas--
where there has been quite a bit more sunshine--will once again
be in the upper 80s to near 90 deg F.

By this evening, the cold front will go through frontolysis
(dissipate) and the shortwave will weaken as it lifts to the
north. This will end the chance of rain from south to north
tonight. There is the potential for some patchy fog tonight,
especially across northwest Oklahoma where boundary layer humidity
will be near 100% with light winds.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Very warm, above-normal temperatures will return Tuesday and
Wednesday as southerly winds return area wide in tandem with a
strengthening mid-level ridge. The ~590 to 592 dam mid-level
ridge will be centered near the ArkLaTex. As a result, high
temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90 deg F both days with
dry conditions. These temperatures are ~10 deg F above normal for
mid-October.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Begin to see the upper ridge shift eastward by Thursday as longwave
trough moves through the western basin and into the Plains. As this
occurs lee cyclogenesis takes place in the High Plains and south
winds will increase through the Plain states. The initial shortwave
embedded within the large-scale trough will lift well north of the
area through the northern Plains on Thursday and gulf moisture will
be restricted to near the south Texas coast. This will limit any
rain chances in our area.

As the upper trough to our north moves east the attendant surface
front will begin to push south into the area on Friday. Meanwhile,
low level moisture will slowly increase as south winds continue to
pull gulf moisture northward. So by late in the day Friday into
Friday night a few showers/storms may be possible mainly well in
advance of the surface front, where better low level moisture may
reside, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Models still diverge by the weekend on how they handle the upper air
pattern and associated surface features, so forecast confidence
drops off by this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Scattered light rain will continue to move across the area this
evening with the rain gradually shifting northward. MVFR/VFR
ceilings are expected throughout much of the TAF period although a
few locations may sporadically drop below MVFR with the highest
potential of this occurring at KWWR. Ceilings will gradually
improve along with clouds clearing from S to N across the area
this TAF period. After the rain ends tonight, some BR will be
possible overnight/early Tuesday especially at KWWR. There are
some indications that visibility may drop below a mile here but
enough uncertainty that it is currently not in the TAF. Winds will
be light tonight and gradually become SE or S Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  85  62  84 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  87  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  81  58  82 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  85  62  85 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         63  88  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25