229
FXUS64 KOUN 222335
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - Low probability of strong to marginally severe storms over
   northern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon
 - Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early next week
 - Another round of heavy rainfall is possible end of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mostly tranquil conditions continue this afternoon with
seasonable temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies as we remain
under the influence of high pressure. Dewpoint temperatures will
be somewhat lower than the past several days, especially across
northwest/western Oklahoma and this should keep the mugginess
down. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm is possible over
southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon, but dry air aloft should
limit the potential. Latest surface observations show a cold front
is poised over Nebraska, which will gradually move southward
and enter our area tomorrow.

Overnight lows by early Saturday morning will be mainly in the 60`s.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Saturday...

Saturday will be feature high temperatures in the 90`s with an
increase in northeast winds as the ridge breaks down and as a strong
trough passes far to the north. The aforementioned front is prog`d
to into northern Oklahoma by mid-day or early afternoon, and
increasing clouds are anticipated with FROPA. There is a chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon with potential dissipating near the I-40 corridor by
evening.

While CAMS are not overly excited about storm development, the
15Z RAP does show activity potentially developing near the state-
line over north-central Oklahoma. As the front enters the area,
moisture-pooling ahead of the boundary appears plausible with
PWATs to 1.9 inches prog`d just ahead of the front. Modeled
soundings also depict strong instability (~3500 J/kg), no CIN,
and modest shear. This yields at least a low chance of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms over northern Oklahoma which are
capable of producing hail up to the size of nickels, gusty winds
to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any activity is expected
to move southeast and may reach east-central Oklahoma by evening.
Precip chances along the front diminish by late evening.

This boundary reaches north Texas by Sunday morning and stalls.

Saturday Night & Sunday...

Later Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms could descend from the high plains and move into
northwest/western Oklahoma. Low precipitation chances linger over
far northwest Oklahoma during the day Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the 80`s over northwest and northern Oklahoma with the
increasing cloudiness and rain chances.

Sunday night...

Low-level WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave, which is
embedded within the northwest flow, will lead to increasing rain
chances after midnight. Highest probabilities of rain are over
northwest Oklahoma

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Near record cold high temperatures likely on Tuesday, with heavy
rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday and again end of the week...

The concern for heavy rainfall and flash flood potential is
increasing for Monday into Tuesday, and thus, WPC has expanded
the slight risk of excessive rainfall to include much of southern
Oklahoma. Ensembles are showing some impressive QPF, but still
differ on location. Thus, model spread remains large (indicating high
uncertainty), with 2 to 3 inch differences among members in some
areas. Nevertheless, there is medium-high confidence (40-60%) of
widespread amounts of at least 1 inch, with the potential for 3
to 4 inches in some areas (through Tuesday).

Highs in the 70`s are expected to impact our area starting Monday
(northern Oklahoma) and including most of Oklahoma by
Tuesday. Temperatures remain well-below average through Thursday
with another round of heavy rainfall possible end of the week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight will become northerly to northeasterly behind a
front tomorrow. A few showers are possible behind the front across
northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but chances were too low to
include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  91  68  90 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK         68  96  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  91  64  86 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     67  89  64  88 /   0  20  10  10
Durant OK         70  94  72  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08