760
FXUS64 KOUN 010631
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
131 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Periods of heavy rain are expected from this afternoon through
  at least Thursday morning. Flash flooding is possible in
  southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Chance of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Line(s) of storms will continue to make its way slowly east across
the area this morning as upper low spins across southwest Kansas.
Rain and storms will continue to be likely along and ahead of a
psuedo-dryline pushing east across western Oklahoma during the first
part of the day. Heavy, potentially flooding rainfall will continue
to be a concern, at least through the morning hours. Flood Watch
will be maintained through midday today.

To the west of the dryline and south of approaching cold front an
area of dry and warm conditions will develop with that area seeing
daytime temps once again climb into the mid/upper 80s and lower 90s.
While east of the dryline better moisture and daytime heating may
result in some intensification of the convection leading to a chance
for a few strong storms.

Meanwhile as the upper low translates east and surface low drops
south though western Oklahoma into north Texas wrap-around rain will
slide back south across northern into central sections of the state
providing some locations another shot of rain. Also this area will
be under the upper low increasing mid-level lapse rates, although
they still are marginal for severe. A few stronger storms still
appear possible across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper low opens up Thursday night into Friday and continues to
progress slowly eastward, rain chances will also shift south and
east during the day Friday with most locations outside of southeast
Oklahoma becoming rain-free. Surface cold front will also slide
south and east through the the area bringing cooler temperatures to
Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs will range from the upper 60s in the
north to near 80 in far southeast Oklahoma.

The residual trough axis will remain stretched from northeast to
southwest across the area Friday and Saturday. This will keep at
least some chance of rain in the forecast across the south and
southeast into the first part of the weekend.

With cooler surface ridge still nosing down through the area
temperatures will again be below normal on Saturday with highs in
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Low precip chances linger in the south into Sunday, otherwise we get
a little reinforcing shot of cooler air moving south through the
Southern Plains Sunday, but with clear skies expect temperatures on
Sunday to be a few degrees warmer, but only a degree or two above
normal.

By early next week western ridge builds east across Texas and
Oklahoma with better westerly flow to our north resulting in a
warming trend and dry conditions. Temperatures climb back into the
90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A plethora of aviation challenges will occur in the next 24 hours.
In the immediate term, multiple squall lines for moving eastward
across southern and central Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Extremely heavy rainfall is leading to reductions in
visibility/ceiling for 1-2 hours at a time. This activity will
clear southeast Oklahoma a little after daybreak. After that, we
will be watching for stratus development across much of the area.
This set of TAFs has mostly MVFR ceilings from 12-18 UTC with
breakdowns to cumulus for a few hours in the afternoon, but there
is a fairly strong probability that stratus remains throughout the
entire day. A cold front will approach the area after 00 UTC with
another chance for storms, gusty northerly winds, and widespread
IFR stratus/fog potential into the night.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  61  70  56 /  70  70  40  10
Hobart OK         87  61  72  56 /  20  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  87  63  75  58 /  40  20  20  10
Gage OK           79  53  68  48 /  40  60  10   0
Ponca City OK     77  58  69  52 / 100  70  10   0
Durant OK         81  67  79  63 / 100  80  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ023>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04