264
FXUS64 KOUN 171724
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

- Above-average temperatures are expected much of this week and
  into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Storms developing in western Nebraska are expected to dive south
through Kansas and make a run at northern Oklahoma. By the time
they reach OK / KS border this morning, storms will likely be
trending weaker though there could be a lingering low risk for
strong to marginally severe storms (aided by the low level jet in
northwest Oklahoma).

As the next wave approaches, we could see a few attempts at storms
late this afternoon, mainly in western Oklahoma. Chances are low,
but if storms do develop, large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. Higher chances will be late Tuesday night as another MCS
is forecast to come south out of Kansas--again, bringing a risk of
large hail and damaging winds. With a frontal boundary moving
through, we will also have a low risk for tornadoes along that
boundary.

Temperatures will peak today with highs in the 90s to near 100
degrees. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Chances for scattered showers and storms continue into Wednesday
morning, mainly along and near the frontal boundary (aided by
isentropic lift) which is expected to be draped across western
north Texas up through northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon chances along
and near this front will be aided by daytime heating. Both rounds
have potential for strong to severe hazards.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to the
upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper level ridging will keep our area mostly dry and warm late week
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

One or more rounds of thunderstorms are expected this evening and
overnight, with highest confidence in impacts across northern
Oklahoma. Severe winds of 80+ mph will be possible with these
storms. Outside of convection, gusty south / southeast winds will
continue through the afternoon before weakening this evening.
Outflow from aforementioned convection will shift winds to the
north after storms pass by. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail
with low chances for MVFR conditions late tonight.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  88  70  92 /  30  20  10   0
Hobart OK         69  92  68  97 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  94  73  96 /  10  20  20   0
Gage OK           64  87  63  94 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  86  66  91 /  60  10   0   0
Durant OK         76  91  73  92 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ004>008-010>013-018>020-025-026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14