251
FXUS64 KOUN 051947
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
147 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Thunderstorms continue across northwest, north central, and
  central Oklahoma.

- Cloudy and cooler over the next two days.

- Above-average temperatures return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Near-term weather impacts focus on a weakening storm system moving
across our area this afternoon. Rain with embedded thunderstorms
will continue at least through sunset.

Surface observations show a surface low located over the Wichita
Mountains. To the south and east of this surface low, the warm
sector has heated into the low-to-mid 70s amid partly cloudy skies.
As a sharp, extremely positively tilted trough continues to dive
south into northern Oklahoma, the cold air will surge southward.
Many locations will actually see falling temperatures this afternoon
during the normal peak of the diurnal cycle.

Meanwhile, the trough`s approach has cooled the upper levels just
enough to provide several hundred Joules of MUCAPE. We have seen
several cores late this morning/early this afternoon that contained
small hail. There is just enough dry air aloft to suggest rather
efficient hail growth, and surface temperatures have dropped into
the upper 40s. Thus, while severe hail appears quite unlikely,
copious amounts of small hail are possible - potentially enough to
cover roads. The primary zone of precipitation will build
southeastward into central Oklahoma this evening, but instability
will decrease as the storms move further from the cold air.
Therefore, lightning totals will decrease at/after sunset, and
overall precipitation will diminish after midnight.

A second surge of cooler/drier air will move in tonight with subtle
pressure rises. This will clear skies, particularly in the
northwestern half of the area. Radiation fog looks probable in areas
that see calmer winds, while frost is possible (particularly on
elevated surfaces) in far northwest Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The short-term forecast period will be dominated by a surface ridge
across the southern Plains. Predictably, this means we`re in for
(mostly) impact-free weather on both Friday and Saturday.

The main forecast question on Friday is how long low-level cloud
cover remains in place across the area. In the post-NAM world, this
is an excellent opportunity to test how well the RRFS and REFS
approximate shallow, cloudy cold airmasses. Both the 12Z RRFS and
HRRR keep low-level cloud cover in place through the full day across
at least central and northern Oklahoma with temperatures remaining
near 50. Most of the global guidance (and thus the NBM) is quite a
bit warmer. Currently holding with the NBM forecast, but attention
will be paid to this as a possible target of opportunity to lower
highs tomorrow.

Saturday looks similar, though cloud cover appears to have a better
chance of mixing out by late in the afternoon. No rain, light winds,
and high temperatures near or above 60 can be expected.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The long term is forecast to be dry with a warming trend beginning
on Sunday into middle of next week. High temperatures will rise into
the low- to mid-70`s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MFVR ceilings and light rain will accompany a cold front that
will move across the area today. These conditions are expected to
diminish after sunset. North-northeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  59  40  60 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  62  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  66  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  58  37  59 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         50  70  45  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13