122
FXUS64 KOUN 040505
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1105 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures today.

- The next chance for rain returns Thursday.

- A warming trend is expected this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The parent upper-level low associated with the mid-latitude
cyclone that brought yesterday`s active weather is lifting to the
northeast across Kansas today. Wrap-around cloud cover and light
showers are ongoing this afternoon. Any showers will be brief,
with minimal rainfall.

A tight surface pressure gradient and 20 to 35 knot 925 to 850 mb
flow are resulting in gusty northwesterly winds. The cloud cover,
combined with continued cold air advection, will result in steady
temperatures this afternoon in the upper 50s and 60s deg F for
most locations. Southeast Oklahoma will reach the low 70s deg F.

The surface pressure gradient should relax tonight, which will
result in decreasing wind speeds. Combined with decreasing cloud
cover, this will create an environment that is prime for
radiational cooling with low temperatures in the 40s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Abundant sunshine and lighter winds are expected on Wednesday
with high temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s deg F.

On Thursday, a quick-moving shortwave trough will move across the
Southern Plains. Synoptic-scale ascent associated with this wave
will result in showers during the day Thursday, with the highest
chance across northern Oklahoma. While the chance for rain will be
relatively high (~70% to 90% along and north of I-40), rainfall
amounts will be relatively light (generally a few hundredths to
0.25"). Western north Texas will likely see little to no rainfall.

A cold front will pass through as the shortwave moves across,
which will bring cooler weather in its wake. There will be a
north-to-south temperature gradient, with high temperatures
ranging from the upper 50s (northern Oklahoma) to the low 70s deg
F (southern Oklahoma/western north Texas).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Another shortwave ridge traverses the plains on Friday, with partly
cloudy skies, light north winds and temperatures mainly in the 60`s.
Then, a warming trend is anticipated into at least Monday, with
above-average temperatures predicted for next week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have become light across the area. The MVFR ceilings at KPNC
are moving out and clearing skies should be there within the hour.
There is not a strong model signal for fog tonight, but would not
be surprised to see some isolated patches of fog with the light
winds and clear skies, although drier air moving into the area
should keep the potential relatively low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  66  49  61 /   0   0   0  80
Hobart OK         45  68  50  62 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  46  70  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           41  67  46  58 /   0   0  30  60
Ponca City OK     44  63  45  58 /   0   0   0  80
Durant OK         49  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26