889
FXUS64 KOUN 190734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
234 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Widespread dangerous heating across our area today although
  shifting to southern Oklahoma & western north Texas ahead of a
  stalled "summer" cool front for Thursday and Friday.

- Fire weather conditions increase to an Elevated Risk today
  across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Dangerous heating returning across our entire area by this
  weekend and hotter with our next cool front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The headlines for today will be a near repeat of yesterday with
widespread dangerous heating and fire weather across parts of our
west.

A surface low off the Central & Southern High Plains will continue
increasing across northern Oklahoma preceding a "summer" cold front
currently stretched across southern Kansas.  An initial shortwave
trough digging through an upper ridge over the Central High Plains
will be pushing that aforementioned surface frontal boundary into
northern Oklahoma during the latter half of this morning based on a
consensus of deterministic & CAMs model guidance and NBM with only
the ECMWF perhaps slow biased.  Strong surface moisture (70+ dew
points) transport from the gulf still to our east from the Mo-Ark
region and north across the Central Plains but will be surging into
our area behind the frontal boundary.  However there could be a lag
or gradient between strong moisture (upper 60s dew points) right
behind the front to the strongest moisture staying up in Kansas.
This would increase the heat index slightly right behind the front
but not too aggressive while lowering the air temperature during the
afternoon. Either way would expect at least 105 degrees behind the
front and would meet either heating advisory or warning criteria for
northcentral OK.  The latest run of the NBM is slightly hot-biased
across our north so will just revert back to the previous run for
this afternoons MaxT with mostly triple digit highs between 100 to
110 degrees with some upper 90s along the Oklahoma/Kansas line. As a
result will have a repeater of heating hazards from yesterday with
an Extreme Heat Warning across the eastern half of our forecast area
to a Heat Advisory across our entire western half. Both advisory &
warning will be in effect late this morning from 11 AM until
sundown/8 PM.

South winds this morning will veer southwest this afternoon ahead of
the frontal boundary around 10-15 mph with weak gusts as this
mornings low-level jet dissipates by the afternoon.  Still
relatively drier air ahead of the front and driest across our west
resulting in very low RH values down to 15% in the afternoon.
Although just breezy winds but the excessively hot temperatures and
very low RHs over very dry ground vegetation will again Elevate the
fire danger risk across much of our west during the afternoon, but
excluding portions of northwest Oklahoma that will be behind the
frontal boundary.

As far as rain, did add -RA this morning across northcentral
Oklahoma with the arriving frontal boundary as some of the CAMs
suggest activity.  However soundings suggest only shallow moisture
in the mid-levels and very dry in the lower-levels so will keep
those POPs very low and mentionable but most unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Not expecting tonight to be as warm as the previous record breaking
night with the cool front stalled in southern Oklahoma. Most of our
area will see milder 70s lows but areas ahead of the front mainly
near and south of the Red River may only drop to near 80 degrees. A
second upper/main wave digs through tonight which could initiate a
few storms in mainly eastern Oklahoma with low POPs (15%) extending
as far west into central Oklahoma during Wednesday late evening to
overnight.

The surface boundary remains stalled across southern Oklahoma on
Thursday with upper ridging building further eastward with the
surface boundary eventually washing out by late Friday.  Although
widespread triple digit MaxTs for Thursday and Friday afternoons the
more excessive heating (105-110 degrees) should stay south of the
stalled front across southern Oklahoma and western Oklahoma where
heating headlines will likely be to perhaps south of I-40 for
Friday. Strong boundary layer mixing from diurnal heating on
Thursday afternoon could break a weak cap across southeast
initiating a few storms there, especially with a boost from the
stalled surface boundary there.  Surface-based instability may be
sufficient for a few weak storms to pulse up until sundown although
not expecting any convection to organize.  As a result have low
storm POPS across our southeast CWA for that time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Pressure heights continue to increase across our area as the upper
high "heat dome" across the Southwestern U.S. expands eastward
approaching the Southern Plains while being pushed by a Pacific
trough coming ashore on the West Coast.  With the surface front
washed out southern low-level flow returns as our temperatures get
even hotter with dangerous heating across our entire forecast area
into the weekend. Shortwaves may develop in the ridge pushing our
next "summer" cold into northern Oklahoma on Monday or Tuesday but
too far out in time to determine any heatwave relief from this for
early next week.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A weak cold front will come into portions of northern Oklahoma
late tonight into tomorrow. This frontal boundary will slowly move
across much of the area by the end of the period. Winds behind
the frontal boundary will be out of the northeast. VFR conditions
are expected through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 107  76 101  75 /   0  20  10  10
Hobart OK        108  76 105  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 108  80 108  78 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          102  70 100  71 /   0  10   0  10
Ponca City OK    102  72  98  72 /  20  20   0  10
Durant OK        107  81 107  77 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...13