860
FXUS64 KOUN 171138
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Rain/thunderstorm chances northern and central Oklahoma today
   and tonight. A few strong to severe storms possible, generally
   along and north of I-40.

 - Hot and humid towards end of the week into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A front/outflow boundaries are expected to move across portions of
the fa today before stalling. Showers/storms will be possible near
and north of the front and near any lingering outflow boundaries.
There continues to be some question on how far south showers/storms
will occur which will likely dependent on where the boundaries stall
this afternoon but current thoughts are still generally near and
north of I-40 with the highest chances in northern OK.

CAMs show development increasing early this morning across portions
of N OK with maybe a lull in activity late morning/early afternoon
before redevelopment occurs later this afternoon into tonight.
Models show that the morning activity may be aided by a weak
shortwave moving across the central Plains with the boundaries and
heating aiding development this afternoon. The early activity may
produce some gusty winds and locally heavy rain whereas some of the
storms could become severe this afternoon/evening with damaging wind
gusts and hail possible. Heavy rain will also remain a concern later
today and tonight. Rain chances are expected to end early Friday.

Temperatures are expected to range from the low 90s in N OK to the
mid/upper 90s along the Red River. Lows are then expected to drop
into the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Models show mid/upper level high continuing to build into the
southern Plains Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a drier
forecast and hotter temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the
mid 90s to around 100 with a few more locations reaching the century
mark on Saturday compared to Friday. The humid airmass that has been
in place over the area is not expected to go anywhere so the hot and
humid conditions will see heat index values increasing with some
locations probably hovering around heat index value of 105 Friday
and Saturday.

Low temperatures will also be on the rise with lows in the low to
mid 70s Friday night but in the mid to possibly upper 70s Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the rest of the weekend into next week, it looks like the
main story will be the hot and humid conditions. Models show the
mid/upper high continuing to influence the region with the fa
potentially ending up closer to the center of the high next week.
Triple digit highs are expected to become more common across the
fa. Heat index values will also be on the increase with triple
digit heat index values likely occurring across the whole fa.
Heat index values of 105 or higher will also likely increase in
coverage becoming more common. With these heat index values, heat
advisories will be likely with multiple days of advisories
possible. This will likely be the longest period of these
particular hot and humid conditions that we have seen so far this
summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold
front across the northern half of Oklahoma. PROB30s were included
to account for this. Brief reductions in visibility and gusty
winds are possible with any storms. Outside of the storms, winds
will generally be from the south.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  97  73 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         97  72 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           91  69  98  72 /  40  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  73  97  74 /  60  30   0   0
Durant OK         97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10