551
FXUS64 KOUN 140801
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Chance of showers and storms continue through this weekend.

- Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next
  week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Overall, a complex forecast today that will be modulated by
ongoing convection and any remnant storm scale features.

A mesoscale convective complex (MCS) of thunderstorms is
currently moving across western Kansas early this morning.
Isentropic ascent/warm advection ahead of the aforementioned MCS
is forecast to result in convective development along the southern
flank of the MCS this morning. The ascent is also resulting in
rapid development of thunderstorms ahead of the MCS across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Any of these storms could become severe
with a threat for hail and gusty winds given the magnitude of
elevated instability present.

As the MCS builds southward, there is a reasonable chance it may
enter northern Oklahoma later this morning and consolidate with
the ongoing development ahead of it. If this occurs, some
intensification is possible with daytime heating as it moves east-
southeast across northern, central, and east central Oklahoma
late morning into the early afternoon with a threat for severe
weather (damaging wind gusts and hail).

By late afternoon/early evening, a remnant outflow boundary (from
the morning MCS) may serve as a focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms. In this scenario, the outflow boundary would likely
be somewhere across east central/central Oklahoma.

By late tonight, there is chance a complex of thunderstorms may
move in from the north with a continued risk for severe weather.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Thunderstorms might be ongoing across parts of the area Sunday
morning from the remnants of an overnight complex. Similar to
today, the evolution of any morning convection will modulate the
risk for redevelopment in the afternoon. For example, a more
significant complex of thunderstorms with a significant southward
push in the morning will reduce the chance for redevelopment in
the afternoon. If the complex leaves a remnant outflow boundary,
that will be the focus for redevelopment. Also, with continued
northerly flow aloft, there will still be a chance of additional
storms approaching from the north Sunday night into early Monday.

By Monday, rising mid-level heights and a strengthening low-level
thermal ridge are forecast as the mid-level ridge becomes
elongated to the northeast into the Southern Plains. As a result,
hotter weather is expected with high temperatures ranging from the
low 90s to low 100s deg F. Most locations will likely have heat
index values in the 100s deg F. The pattern will also be less
favorable for showers and thunderstorms compared to previous days.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The heat will continue build on Tuesday with the low-level
thermal ridge amplifying ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level
trough and attendant cold front.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become
suppressed to the southwest as the aforementioned trough moves
across the Plains. This may allow the weak cold front to advance
southward with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, it
appears the most significant cold air advection will remain to
the northeast of the area--so no appreciable cool down is
currently likely.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

There is still the potential of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
morning, but the current trends and the latest models show this
potential somewhat less than previous forecasts. So while there is
some potential at most of the TAF sites, only KOKC and KOUN will
have PROB30 groups Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings look to be less
widespread than Friday morning.

Regarding the KDUA observation and TAF... the KDUA observation
has given LIFR observations, but the current sense is that this is
likely due to sensor issues and not weather conditions. A tower
camera from Durant, while not specifically at KDUA airport, shows
unrestricted visibility and no indications of low clouds in the
area. That said, although the observation may not be
representative of weather conditions at this time, we do expect
that there will be the potential of MVFR (and potentially IFR)
ceilings develop before sunrise at KDUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  90  72 /  50  30  30  20
Hobart OK         94  71  96  72 /  20  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  96  76 /  20  20  20  20
Gage OK           91  67  94  68 /  10  30  10  20
Ponca City OK     86  68  87  69 /  50  30  40  20
Durant OK         90  73  91  74 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26