038
FXUS64 KOUN 281713
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Widespread beneficial and potentially flooding rainfall
  expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Chance of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through mid-week, before
  cooling Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

There will continue to be some isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms across portions of central into south central and
southeast Oklahoma early this morning. This may linger into this
afternoon across far southeast Oklahoma, closer to weak upper
forcing from departing shortwave trough. Otherwise, shortwave
ridging aloft will be centered from southwest Texas through Oklahoma
and northeast into the Upper Midwest. This is expected to keep
much of the area dry through the day today.

This upper shortwave ridge will also keep daytime temperatures well
above normal for late September. Highs will range from the low/mid
80s in the north to middle 90s in western north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Tuesday, an upper trough will dig south across California and
then close off and slow down as it turns east into the desert
southwest. In advance of this trough southwest flow will pull
increasing amounts of Pacific moisture northward, including the
remnants of Hurricane Polo.

Although the main forcing from the upper low will be well west of
the area during the day Tuesday. A lead wave will move northeast
through west Texas and western Oklahoma producing showers and
thunderstorms across western into northern Oklahoma. However, by
Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday rain/storm chances
increase, initially across the west, then expand eastward as the
upper low approaches the Southern Plains.

Models are still suggesting a fairly well-defined dry slot
developing during the day Wednesday from southwest Texas into
western Oklahoma. In addition a dryline looks to set up, but the
question is just where will this occur. Quite a range with this
evenings models. The NAM would suggest the eastern Texas panhandle,
the 12Z Euro is similar, but the 00Z GFS comes in much farther east
as an elongated surface low runs from north-central Kansas into
southwest Oklahoma with the dryline running closer to the I_44
corridor.

With either of these solutions, but especially with the further west
scenario, there appears to be a window of opportunity for severe
storms. Rather strong deep-layer shear and modest MUCAPE along with
soundings showing a rather deeply saturated profile would suggest a
chance for a tornado or two. If storms could entrain some dry air
associated with the dry slot, large hail may be a concern as well.
Still quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to severe potential
however.

Otherwise, widespread appreciable and possibly flooding rainfall is
expected from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the
closed low progresses very slowly eastward through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As we go into the latter part of the week into the weekend, models
differ on how they handle the upper low, but either solution(GFS or
Euro) would keep precip chances in the forecast through the end of
the week and through the upcoming weekend. Still heavy rainfall
potential continues Thursday into Friday across south central and
southeast parts of the state.

With this continuation of rain, associated cloud cover and frontal
passage that will occur late in the week, temperatures will finally
begin to feel more like fall instead of summer. Most areas from
Thursday into at least Saturday will in the 70s and lower 80s. There
is a chance for a few locations, especially Friday as cooler surface
high pokes south into the area, to see highs only in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Towards the end of the period, there is a low chance for
thunderstorms at KWWR and showers and KSWO/KPNC. Lower ceilings
are possible with this activity. Otherwise, southeasterly winds
are expected at most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  91  72  84 /  10  10  20  90
Hobart OK         71  90  71  84 /  10  30  50  90
Wichita Falls TX  72  95  73  88 /   0  10  30  90
Gage OK           66  83  66  82 /   0  50  90  70
Ponca City OK     65  85  69  82 /   0  40  30  80
Durant OK         69  94  72  92 /  10  10   0  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13