512
FXUS64 KOUN 021122
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
522 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this morning across
  northwest Oklahoma with a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon
  through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind
  gusts, and tornadoes.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

More active day on tap Monday as severe weather is expected across
the area. Lead sub-tropical wave responsible for showers and
thunderstorms across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle early this
morning will continue to shift east through the day today. The
associated showers and thunderstorms will also propagate eastward
and will move into western and northwestern Oklahoma over the next
few hours. Anticipate this activity to gradually weaken as it
approaches, however a few strong/severe winds gusts may remain
possible early this morning.

Expect some of this activity to continue through the morning hours
across western Oklahoma before possibly re-intensifing by midday
into the early afternoon hours as they near the I-35 corridor.

As we move into the afternoon hours the main upper low will move
through the panhandles into western Oklahoma. As this occurs, one
surface low will lift from Nebraska into South Dakota with a
trailing cold front to a second deepening surface low in southwest
Kansas, aiding in increasing south winds. A dryline will then take
shape and trail southward from this low along or just east of the
100th meridian by mid-afternoon.

As lift from the upper low overspreads the dryline additional
convective development is expected along the dryline from southern
Kansas southward across western Oklahoma and into western north
Texas. Questions remain with regards to instability in the wake of
the earlier showers and thunderstorms. However with potential breaks
in the clouds, the advection of mid-upper 60 dewpoints and surface
temperatures possible as warm as the low to middle 80s, models are
showing MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg by late afternoon. This along with
deep-layer shear of 50-60kts will be favorable initially for
discrete supercells capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes as
well as some large hail.

Low level winds will continue to strengthen during the day, however
by this evening the low level jet backs and strengthens further as
well as winds aloft. This will increase deep-layer shear(60-70kts)
providing a favorable wind profile for a window of time where a
strong tornado or two will be possible. This is expected to
transition as we go into the late afternoon and evening into line(s)
or line segments with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes/circulations
the main hazards.

Storms will continue to grow upscale through the evening as they
move east and northeast across the area. As this occurs some areas
could receive some heavier rainfall, mainly along and east of I-35,
before the storms push through southeast Oklahoma around sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As the system pulls away Tuesday a Pacific cold front will sweep
southeast across the area bringing gusty northwest winds, cooler
temperatures(still above seasonal norms), and a drier airmass. Main
impact will be with the drier airmass as overnight lows will drop
into the 40s across much of the area by Wednesday morning. More of a
west to northwest flow develops Wednesday with more sunshine and
lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Another shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies into
the Southern Plains on Thursday. This wave could provide another
quick shot of rainfall across portions of central and northern
Oklahoma. A few storms appear possible, but no severe weather is
anticipated.

Temperatures through the latter part of the week and into the
weekend should remain rather consistent in the upper 60s and
low/middle 70s. Models do show another large upper low dropping
south through the northern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River
Valley over the weekend, but any precip associated with this wave
currently appears to remain to our north and east. It will also
bring another front through the area Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Most sites remain VFR this morning, but anticipate many of these
to fall to MVFR and possibly a period of IFR around mid-morning as
a band of moisture and associated precip move from west to east
across the area. Cloud see a brief lull in the precip this
afternoon before additional storms develop and march west to east
across the area late today and tonight. Some of these storms will
be severe with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Most sites
will again go VFR after the storms, but a front will move across
the area with winds shiftin the west and northwest behind the
front. Another batch of moisture will bring most sites back to
MVFR by the end of the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  54  68  48 /  60  90   0   0
Hobart OK         81  54  70  46 /  70  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  55  72  48 /  50  70   0   0
Gage OK           80  49  65  42 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     78  55  68  46 /  70  90  10   0
Durant OK         86  60  74  50 /   0  90  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30