012
FXUS64 KOUN 161841
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
141 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances return Monday through Wednesday.

- Hottest temperatures and heat indices will be Tuesday.

- Seasonable and dry conditions end of the week and into next
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The low-level thermal ridge will strengthen today with warm
downsloping surface winds coupled with sunny skies will give way to
temperatures warming into the upper 80s to 90s. Dewpoints are
hovering in the upper 60s to lower 70s with heat index values near
100 to 105 degrees, especially across western north Texas and into
southwest Oklahoma where temperatures will be warmest.

Diurnal convection will develop along the mountains out west this
afternoon and push east-southeast into Kansas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle this evening. A shortwave in the northwesterly flow aloft,
along with an increase in the LLJ will help to maintain
thunderstorms as they continue to push eastward into the late
evening and overnight hours across northern Oklahoma. A few storms
may become strong to severe with hail up to the size of quarters and
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Additionally storms are expected to develop along the front in
southwest Nebraska and dive southeastward into a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) across Kansas. A few models want to bring these storms
into northern Oklahoma during the early morning hours Tuesday and
into daybreak before diminishing. If this solution were to occur,
the main hazards with the MCS would be damaging wind gusts and hail.

Another shortwave will approach Tuesday afternoon and flatten and
shove the upper ridge towards Baja Cali by Wednesday. The lee
cyclone in far southeast Colorado will strengthen with a sharpening
dryline across West Texas. A strengthening low-level thermal ridge
across West Texas and into western Oklahoma and portions of western
north Texas will give way to convective inhibition through the
afternoon hours despite temperatures rising into the 90s to triple
digits. Convective attempts are likely through the afternoon and
early evening hours with a potential for a few isolated storms to
overcome the cap, especially across western Oklahoma closer to the
surface low and where the LLJ will be stronger. If a storm or two
develops, main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Another hazard Tuesday afternoon will be heat indices near 100 to
105 degrees.

Highest chances for storms are later Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with the incoming front. An MCS will develop across Kansas
and push south-southeast through Kansas and into northern Oklahoma
by the early morning hours Wednesday. Main hazards will be large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Any storm along the frontal boundary
will also have the potential for a tornado or two, otherwise the
tornado threat will remain low.

The cold front will push south across the area Wednesday morning
with moist isentropic showers and storms developing ahead of the
boundary across central and southern Oklahoma. A few of the storms
may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts
as the main hazards. The front will stall across central Oklahoma
with increased daytime heating (temperatures in the upper 80s to
90s), instability and continued moist isentropic lift ahead of the
front giving way to some scattered showers and storms across central
and southeast Oklahoma. Once again, a storms may become severe with
large hail and damaging winds. Cold air advection will be weak with
the front as the surface low ejects into the Midwest. Thus, highs
are still expected to warm into the 80s post-frontal across northern
Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The front is forecast to undergo frontolysis somewhere over Oklahoma on
Wednesday night, with rain chances diminishing by Thursday morning.
Southerly winds and near-average temperatures are expected end of the
week and into next weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts over the
southern plains.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Patches of diurnal-fair weather cumulus will continue to shift
eastward through the evening, with highest coverage expected at
terminals along and east of Interstate 35.

By early Tuesday morning, ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across
south-central Kansas may move into northern Oklahoma, most likely
after 06-08 UTC. While impact to any terminal here is low (~30%),
a reduction in category would be expected. Gusty southerly winds
are also forecast to emerge towards the end of the period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  73  89 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK         74  99  71  93 /  10  10  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           70  97  64  88 /  20  20  30   0
Ponca City OK     70  93  70  88 /  20  20  50  10
Durant OK         74  94  76  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09