066
FXUS64 KOUN 281740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - A few strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected across
   southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Thursday afternoon
   and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible.

 - Continued rain chances on Friday into the holiday weekend,
   mainly across the western and southern portions of the area.
   Cooler temperatures remain areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

An outflow boundary continues to push southward this morning and is
roughly located from near McAlester to Ardmore to Walters and Altus
(at 11:30 am).  Some cloud enhancement has been noted along the
leading edge, but is beginning to decrease on the western potion of
this boundary. Although the bulk of the morning precipitation is
confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma, widely scattered
showers and storms continue to form, mainly east of I-35.

A cold front is making a better push southward across the Texas
Panhandle and is becoming better defined across parts of west
central and southwestern Oklahoma (between Erick and Hobart.
Temperatures have already soared into the lower and mid 90s
across western north Texas.

So the bottom line is strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
form along a cold front/outflow boundary by early to mid afternoon.
This is mainly expected to be across the southern third of Oklahoma
and western north Texas.  With ongoing convection across southcentral
and southeastern Oklahoma, this area may see severe storms first or
at least an increase in thunderstorm intensity.  Moderate to strong
instability and marginal shear will support the risk of strong
damaging winds/some large hail and very heavy rainfall.  A majority
of the severe convection should be confined to northern Texas by
early evening.

Convergent mid-level flow and sufficient moisture will support a
chance of widely scattered showers and a few storms north of the
surface boundary during the evening and overnight hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Although a cold front is expected to push into at least northern
Texas by Friday morning, parts of south central and southeastern
Oklahoma will have a continued chance of widely scattered showers
and storms.  Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions are anticipated.
Afternoon highs will be well below average with temperatures ranging
from the mid 70s to mid 80s (western north Texas).  Northeast
surface winds will become easterly during the afternoon and evening.

By late Friday afternoon and evening, numerous showers and storms
are expected to develop where rather deep, moist upslope flow will
occur. With northwest flow aloft, some of this precipitation is
expected to reach at least the western third of Oklahoma and western
north Texas by late evening and overnight.  Similar to convective
trends over the past several days, some of the showers and
thunderstorms will linger through Saturday morning, especially
across western north Texas.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
Saturday afternoon and evening over the higher terrain of New Mexico
and western Texas.  Rain chances will remain rather low across the
eastern half of Oklahoma Saturday evening and overnight, but some
storms will likely impact western Oklahoma and western north Texas
mainly during the overnight hours.  Severe thunderstorms are not
expected Friday through Saturday night, but areas of heavy rainfall
may occur with some of the storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

By and large, the tail end of the Labor Day Weekend should remain
mainly dry and relatively cool for most of Oklahoma and western-
north Texas. Additional episodes of High Plains originating
activity will be possible across western and southern portions of
the area on Saturday night and perhaps Sunday night (though
chances decrease over each successive night). Temperatures will
begin to slowly moderate into early next week, though will
continue to run several degrees below normal for the start of
September.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Complex setup over the next 24 hours leads to below normal
confidence in the forecast this period. Currently expect low
ceilings to lift for a time this afternoon across northern and
central Oklahoma before lowering again (potentially into LIFR
territory) tonight into tomorrow behind a cold front. Showers and
storms are expected to develop along the front in the next few
hours across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas and then
move southward and out of the area by early this evening. Winds
will shift to north or northeast behind the front but will remain
fairly light through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  74  65  77 /  50  20  20  30
Hobart OK         66  80  65  81 /  30  10  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  69  82  68  81 /  50  10  30  50
Gage OK           62  77  62  78 /  20  10  50  50
Ponca City OK     63  76  63  80 /  30  10  10  20
Durant OK         69  79  68  80 /  70  40  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...08