915
FXUS64 KOUN 131146
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Near-record warmth expected into the early weekend.

 - Dry weather continues through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Stop me if you`ve heard this one before: there is an unseasonably
strong subtropical ridge centered just to our southwest, and we`re
in the weak northwest flow regime just on its periphery. A surge of
low 50s dewpoints will begin in far southern Oklahoma early this
morning with moisture overspreading most of the rest of the area
this afternoon. There is some potential for fog near the Red River
along and east of I-35 this morning due to that moisture return and
light easterly winds, but the antecedent conditions should keep any
fog relatively localized.

High temperatures today continue to be well above average (and start
pushing into the near-record terrain) in part due to the strength of
the mid-level ridge. Sunshine will continue across most of the area,
though it wouldn`t be surprising to see high cloud cover with mid-
level flow coming off of the Colorado Front Range.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

That ridge will pivot a little bit downstream during the day on
Friday and bring us another day of mid-November heat wave action.
Southerly winds will shift ever so slightly to south-southwesterly,
so moisture return trajectories could be a bit less optimal than
today. Wind speeds look to be too low for fire weather out west
regardless, but a dry air intrusion/dryline surge does look more
probable tomorrow than today. Otherwise, we`ll keep right on
trucking with those highs near daily records.

And if that wasn`t enough for you, Saturday brings the promise of
even more heat. Medium-range models are hinting at a cold frontal
approach to at least the northern 1/3 of the area in the
afternoon. However, with the upper trough that we previously were
watching for this weekend nowhere to be found on the Plains,
precipitation chances will continue to be zero. Areas south of the
frontal boundary will have yet another chance to tie or break
daily high temperature records - arguably the best chance of any
of the 3 days.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A surface low will develop in the vicinity of southeast Oklahoma
during the day on Sunday. The low looks to be transient/weak, so
northerly winds on its northwest flank will also be light. Still,
that will be enough of a pattern shift to at least drop temperatures
5-10 degrees in most spots. The possible window for showers and
storms late Sunday night into Monday continues to look more and more
like a dud - our official forecast is almost entirely dry through
the day Monday.

Our attention will turn to the middle of the week, which also looks
favorable for active weather. A cold frontal intrusion is expected
Monday night, but the ejection of a trough (this time supported by
the STJ and not entirely cut off from the mean flow) on Tuesday will
prevent the moist sector from scouring too far. A quick bout of
return flow is possible toward the middle of the week with the
potential for showers and storms.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Other than a low probability of fog or low stratus at KDUA over
the next hour or two, VFR conditions are expected for most of the
TAF period. Winds will increase late morning into early afternoon
from the south then decrease again this evening. Fog may return
towards the end of the TAF period but confidence in location and
density is too low to include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  56  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         81  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  57  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77  41  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  52  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  61  81  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08