236
FXUS64 KOUN 310354
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

 - Continued rain chances through the holiday weekend.

 - Cooler temperatures continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Persistent west-northwest flow aloft will result in continued
unsettled and unseasonably cool weather across the Southern Plains
through the holiday weekend.

As a shortwave trough/vort max (currently evident on GOES water
vapor imagery across southeast Colorado) moves into the Plains
today, a wind shift/weak cold front will advance southward into
northwest/western Oklahoma. The wind shift, combined with
synoptic-scale ascent from the vort max and 500 to 1000 J/kg of
instability, will serve as the focus for the development of
showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon across the
Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into southwest Kansas. Through mid-
evening, instability and shear will be sufficient for strong to
low-end severe thunderstorms across northwest into western
Oklahoma.

The aforementioned wind shift and attendant ascent will continue
to advance to the southeast overnight, which will result in the
chance of showers and thunderstorms moving to the southeast with
time. Toward sunrise, the highest chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be near the I-44 corridor. Severe weather is
not expected during the overnight hours.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will generally be
along and southeast of I-44 on Sunday with the effective boundary
located near the I-44 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Preciptable
water values will also decrease across northwest/northern Oklahoma
with some dry air advection. Shower/storm coverage is expected to
be highest during the morning hours with a gradual decrease
through the afternoon as precipitable water values gradually
decrease from north to south through the day.

As a result, another unseasonably cool day is expected for some
with high temperatures generally in the 70s deg F along and east
of I-35. West of I-35, clouds should gradually decrease, which
should allow temperatures to rise into the 80s deg F.

The chance of showers/storms should be even lower on Monday (20
to 30% generally along and east of I-35) with a continued decrease
in precipitable water values with dry air advection. The increased
insolation will result widespread 80s deg F for high temperatures
(which is still below average).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The rest of the area should see the sun Tuesday as the storm systems
finally give us a break and shift to our east. Temperatures will
respond, but remain well below normal for early September. A
stronger cold front will move south through the area late Wednesday,
putting a stop to any warming trend we might of had moving into the
middle of the week. This front may also tap into some moisture as it
moves through giving parts of the area another chance for a few
showers.

Most of the area should warm into the low/mid 80s ahead of the front
Wednesday, but many areas will drop back into the 70s by Thursday.
With the lower dewpoints, overnight low will drop into the 50s by
the end of the week across most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Most of our terminals will remain in a MVFR category through 18Z.
Our remaining terminals currently in a VFR category will degrade to
MVFR conditions by 08Z.  Convection coming off the Central &
Southern High Plains may impact our terminals further lowering
ceilings to brief periods of IFR conditions and lowered visibilities
in rain exiting most of our terminals by 18Z.  Will keep PROB30s for
TSRA at terminal KDUA from 18-34Z. Otherwise, expecting all
terminals to have returned to a VFR category by 18Z on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  79  65  82 /  40  40  20  20
Hobart OK         67  84  63  86 /  50  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  82  67  85 /  40  30  10  10
Gage OK           63  81  60  84 /  60  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     66  78  63  82 /  60  40  40  40
Durant OK         70  78  68  84 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68