040
FXUS64 KOUN 022258
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
458 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 455 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

- Near average temperatures Friday.

- Chance of rain/drizzle Saturday into Sunday, with some snow
  potential across northern Oklahoma.

- Turning much colder Sunday through at least the middle of next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

A weak cold front will cross the area this evening, bringing a
northerly wind shift but not much in the way of a significant
airmass change. Surface ridging will build into the area tonight
into the day on Friday, maintaining a northerly wind direction into
Friday morning before winds become more easterly during the
afternoon in response to pressure falls across the high plains.
Highs on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than today, in the mid
40s north to mid to upper 50s south.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

A warm front will begin to take shape and lift slowly northward
Friday night into Saturday as surface low pressure deepens to our
west. Expect extensive low clouds and likely some drizzle through
much of the day on Saturday as the warm front passes through. As
of now the much colder airmass is forecast to remain just to our
north which should keep most of the freezing/frozen precipitation
confined north of our area on Saturday, but will have to continue
to monitor the progress of the arctic airmass as models sometimes
underestimate its ability to bleed further south than forecast.
For now have included a chance for some freezing drizzle across
far northern Oklahoma Saturday morning to account for some of the
uncertainty with the timing and location of the warm front.

By Saturday night, a compact mid-upper level wave will cross the
Rockies into the central/southern Plains, with the surface low
forecast to track across Oklahoma. This will help drag a cold front
into the area, with a much colder airmass expected in its wake.
Depending on the exact track/timing of the wave, wintry
precipitation is possible as early as late Saturday night across far
northwest Oklahoma behind the cold front.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

The upper low will continue to move across the central/southern
Plains Sunday, generally along the OK/KS border as the cold front
and sfc low continue to move across the region. Breezy/windy NW
winds behind the front will continue to advect much colder
temperatures into the region. It is likely we will see steady or
falling temperatures through the day, with temperatures in the 20s
and 30s across much of the area by mid afternoon Sunday.

Precipitation chances will continue Sunday across portions of the
area but ending during the day as the dry slot moves into the
region. Light winter precipitation will be possible in northern OK
but the bulk of the winter precipitation is still expected to remain
to the north of the area in KS. However, given what is likely to be
a very tight gradient in snowfall accumulation on the north/west
flank of the low track, even minor changes to the storm track could
bring a more impactful snow event to portions of northern Oklahoma
so we will continue to monitor trends closely.

The colder temperatures are expected to continue next week with well
below average temperatures. Wind chills Monday morning are expected
to fall into the single digits (perhaps below zero in northern
Oklahoma). Highs Monday and Tuesday are currently expected to be in
the upper 20s to upper 30s with lows in the teens. Models show
another system taking shape in the southwestern US by next Wednesday
but as of now this one is forecast to slide by to our south without
bringing much in the way of precipitation to our area.

How long the cold snap lingers next week is still uncertain with
large differences in the the models regarding the weather pattern
for the middle to later part of next week, but there is the
potential for some re-enforcing shots of cold air that could slow
any warm up and keep temperatures below average for much of next
week.

25/Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Weak northerly winds will overspread much of the area tonight,
before slowly veering to the east-southeast tomorrow morning to
mid afternoon. There is a low chance for lowered visibilities
across southern Oklahoma Friday morning, but confidence in adding
mist/fog to the KDUA TAF is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  29  51  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         27  54  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  32  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           23  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     25  46  30  47 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         35  58  42  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13