885
FXUS64 KOUN 121015
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

 - Very warm temperatures in the 90s by midweek, otherwise above
   normal highs in the 80s throughout the next seven days.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances will return this weekend and into
   early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Current mid-level satellite water vapor imagery has the upper low
spinning over Louisiana early this morning, but is expected to lift
north into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Weak northwesterly
flow will begin to dominate the forecast area aloft. Lee troughing
will develop with a return to southerly surface flow across most of
the forecast area. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will give way
to a pleasant start to the work week with temperatures slightly
above normal temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Weak ridging Tuesday with westerly flow aloft as the next trough
digs into the Great Basin region. With the approaching trough, the
lee trough will begin to strengthen with warm downsloping winds
bringing upper 80s to 90s temperatures with the warmest temperatures
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. The 70-80 knot jet
streak associated with the upper low will be entering West Texas
Wednesday with 50 knot westerly winds at 700mb and 30-40 knot winds
at 850mb being mixed to the surface. Thus, expect breezy westerly
surface winds coming off the Caprock into western Oklahoma and
portions of western north Texas Wednesday afternoon. Potential
record breaking temperatures are expected by Wednesday with
widespread highs in the 90s across the forecast area and a few
localized areas breaching triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

A weak cold front early Thursday morning will help to cool
temperatures slightly, but still remain above normal with highs
generally in the 80s for the end of the work week. However, some
areas may warm back into the lower 90s through the weekend. A few
shortwaves in the wake of the passing low to the north will bring
continued southwesterly flow aloft and a return of sub-tropical
moisture through the weekend. Precipitation chances are expected to
increase Friday through Sunday with increasing daily chances for
strong to severe storms. By Sunday, a stronger trough axis may dig
into the western CONUS and bring continued strong southwesterly flow
and continued precipitation chances into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
northerly winds will shift to the south today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         81  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  59  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           82  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  60  87  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13