525
FXUS64 KOUN 021833
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  through tonight with a threat for damaging wind gusts, large
  hail, and tornadoes.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today will be an active weather day with a couple of rounds of
strong to severe thunderstorms with the second round of
thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight being the most
intense.

The first round of thunderstorms is developing near and just west
of the I-35 corridor. Increasing ascent associated with a lead
wave and confluence zone will result in continued development of
showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon near and east of
I-35. These thunderstorms will move to the northeast through the
early afternoon. While instability with the initial activity is
more limited, some strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are
possible. Currently, these storms appear to be elevated with the
primary hazards being heavy rainfall and hail. The greater risk
for severe weather will be with the second round of thunderstorms.

As synoptic-scale ascent associated with the primary shortwave
trough lifts into the Plains, a surface low is expected to deepen
over Nebraska and accelerate northeast into South Dakota. A
trailing dryline will advance eastward and extend through central
Kansas into western Oklahoma and western Texas, near or just east
of the 100th meridian. Surface heating (highs reaching the mid-70s
to low 80s deg F) and continued moisture advection (dew points in
the mid-60s deg F) ahead of the dryline will result in
destabilization (i.e., MLCAPE to 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by late
afternoon across western Oklahoma and western north Texas for
convection initiation for the second round of thunderstorms.

With increasing effective bulk shear (~40 to 60 knots) associated
with an approaching mid-level jet streak (~75 knots), the
environment will support supercell development capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. As the
low-level jet intensifies during the evening, low-level shear will
increase, leading to enlarged hodographs and a heightened tornado
threat, including the potential for strong tornadoes.

Strong linear forcing will likely drive upscale growth into a
mixed storm mode of broken line segments with embedded supercells
into the evening. This presents a continued risk for damaging
winds and embedded supercell/QLCS tornadoes as the activity tracks
east-northeastward through tonight. Anomalous moisture (~1.7 to
1.8" precipitable water values) will result in heavy rainfall.
Given the progressive nature of the storm movement and minimal
potential for training, localized flooding concerns will remain
primarily across flood-prone low-lying and urban locations.
Thunderstorms are expected to clear southeast Oklahoma by early
Tuesday morning.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler and drier weather will arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday as
a Pacific cold front passes by in the wake of the storm system.
Seasonable high temperatures are expected (60s and 70s deg F)
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Northwest winds will be breezy
on Tuesday but will decrease in speed Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Winds will return to the south by Wednesday afternoon.
The drier air mass will set the stage for cool nights with lows in
the 40s to low 50s deg F both nights.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Another shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies into
the Southern Plains on Thursday. This wave could provide another
quick shot of rainfall across portions of central and northern
Oklahoma. A few storms appear possible, but no severe weather is
anticipated.

Temperatures through the latter part of the week and into the
weekend should remain rather consistent in the upper 60s and
low/middle 70s. Models do show another large upper low dropping
south through the northern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River
Valley over the weekend, but any precip associated with this wave
currently appears to remain to our north and east. It will also
bring another front through the area Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The combination of low stratus and emerging thunderstorm activity
will yield prolonged MVFR-to-IFR conditions across the region
through this evening (~03-06 UTC/Tuesday). Strong-erratic winds,
along with low vis and ceilings, can be expected if thunderstorms
directly impact terminals. Rain/thunder chances will end from
west-to-east into Tuesday.

Very gusty south-southwesterly winds will continue prior to a
frontal passage into early Tuesday morning, when a wind shift (to
prevailing northwesterly direction) will progress to the southeast
through the area. Gusty winds and stratus will persist in the
post-front as well.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  65  46  68 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         54  67  45  70 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  70  47  73 /  60   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  61  41  68 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  65  44  66 /  90  10   0   0
Durant OK         58  73  49  73 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09