389
FXUS64 KOUN 311617
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Extreme heat warning is in effect today for heat index values
  up to 114 degrees.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening with damaging wind gusts possible.

- Excessive heat returns next week after a brief reprieve over the
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Isolated showers and a few storms remain possible this morning but
are expected to dissipate by late morning.

Dangerously hot and humid conditions are expected today. An Extreme
Heat Warning has been issued with heat index values up to 114 expected
for a large portion of the CWA, with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. In
addition, severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts of
65 to 70 mph, are possible for areas generally near and south of the
I-40 corridor by late afternoon and into the evening.

A cold front, which extends across southeastern Nebraska and northwest
Kansas, is expected to arrive in northwest Oklahoma this morning (within
a few hours after dawn). Guidance indicates the front reaches central
Oklahoma`s door by early to mid- afternoon and pushes south of our CWA
tonight. Conditions will be hot and humid in the "warm sector" with
air temperatures rising to 105 degrees (perhaps as high as 110 degrees
immediately ahead of the boundary).

Despite the wind shift to the NNW after FROPA, the triple digit temperatures
will coincide with a rise in dewpoint temperatures following FROPA and
this will lead to dangerously hot heat indices of 110 to 115 degrees
for parts of central Oklahoma. Similar heat indices are expected into
southern, and so the extreme heat warning extends there, as well.

Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the front by
late afternoon or early evening. CI is prog`d to occur near or just
south of the I-40 corridor, where inverted-V soundings with steep
low-level lapse rates (~10 deg C/km) and 40 degree temperature dew
point temperature spreads could lead to severe wind gusts of 65 to
70 mph. Activity is anticipated to wane and decrease in intensity by
late evening.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Following the frontal passage on Saturday, breezy northerly winds
and less hot temperatures are expected. High temperatures will
range from the low 90`s (north and central Oklahoma) to the upper
90`s (southwest Oklahoma and north Texas). Winds will become light
on Sunday with similar temperatures expected.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Excessive heat returns next week as the upper ridge advances from
the west. Rain chances are not zero, but probabilities are low
through Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front will
continue to move across the area today. Winds behind this
boundary will be be northerly and gusty at times. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected along the boundary this afternoon,
which may affect TAF sites along and south of I-40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  93  69  93 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  97  67  96 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  70  98 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  94  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  96  70  95 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-014>016-
     021-033-034.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-
     011>013-017>020-022>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13