908
FXUS64 KOUN 111544
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures continue for the foreseeable future.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma Tuesday
  and potentially again Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The heat wave rolls on today. The subtropical ridge continues across
an axis from the Four Corners to the Florida Keys and nothing in the
near term looks to budge it. 850 mb winds remain veered across the
High Plains which will encourage deep mixing. Surface temperatures
will rise well into the 100s west of I-35 and to around 100 near the
I-35 corridor.

Elevated fire weather continues today in northwest Oklahoma in part
thanks to that strong mixing, which will increase maximum gusts to
25 mph and reduce minimum RH to around 25%. Fire weather conditions
will improve around sunset as winds decrease; the oppressive heat
will be slower to recede over the early parts of the night.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level pattern during the short-term will be characterized
by the emergence of a broad, though rather weak trough reaching the
Pacific Coast. This will help to recenter the subtropical ridge over
the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. A surface low pressure will
develop over the area on Thursday with a weak front possibly
entering from the north as well.

Rather than that frontal boundary providing heat relief, downslope
mixing + compressional warming near the surface low will potentially
bring temperatures up another degree or two compared to today. Fire
weather could also be elevated (or perhaps locally near-critical)
across parts of western Oklahoma Wednesday/Thursday afternoon,
though the location of the surface low will play a key role in that
(stronger surface winds to the south and west of the low, weaker
winds near and north of the low).

Some guidance (notably the NAM) depicts a disturbance or two
developing on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge by
Thursday evening. Any storms that develop from those MCVs would
likely remain to our west, but rain/thunderstorm chances are at
least mentionable (20 percent or so) in northwest Oklahoma Thursday
night.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

There`s not much to say about the long-term pattern that hasn`t
already been said. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
from the Gulf Coast to the southern Plains through the upcoming
week. There will be a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of
California northward through Arizona/New Mexico and northeastward
into the central Plains. This pattern will encourage thunderstorm
development daily throughout the plume. However, for most of us,
subsidence from the subtropical ridge looks likely to keep all rain
and cooler temperatures away at least through the middle of next
week.

The potential exception to the rule is northwest Oklahoma. Here,
there is a little more distance from the center of the subtropical
high. There`s also a little less distance to the Rocky Mountain
terrain features that will initiate daily thunderstorms from Friday
through the weekend. Thus, low-end nocturnal precipitation chances
remain in the forecast in far northwest OK from Friday night through
Monday night. For the rest of us, expect hot, dry, and sunny weather
to continue.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southwesterly
winds this afternoon will relax and back towards the southeast
overnight. Veered winds will return at all locations by the middle
of the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         79 104  80 104 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 104  79 105 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77 104  79 105 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     80 103  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...13