657
FXUS64 KOUN 161121
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Rain chances this afternoon/evening.

 - Rain chances return to northern and central Oklahoma tonight
   into Thursday. A few strong to severe storms possible.

 - Hot and humid towards end of the week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Models show the potential for a disturbance to move into the area
later today. This feature combined with heating of the moist airmass
will bring another chance (15-30%) for isolated/scattered
showers/storms to develop in parts of southern OK and western north
TX this afternoon with chances ending early this evening due to the
loss of heating. Some of these storms may become strong with small
hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain/localized flooding will also be
a concern.

The higher chance for showers/storms will be later this evening into
tonight (Wed. night). Models show a shortwave moving across the
northern and central Plains. This shortwave will cause a front to
approach and begin to move into the area tonight. Showers/storms
will be possible with the front across northern and central OK. Some
of the storms could be strong to low end severe with strong winds
the primary concern. Heavy rain will also be possible.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the low/mid 90s again today
with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Models show the previously mentioned front or at least the effective
front pushing south across portions of the fa Thursday.
Showers/storms will remain possible along and north of the front.
There is some uncertainty on how far the front will push but right
now looks like it could make it around the I-40 corridor so rain
chances are currently along and north of I-40 with the highest
chances (30-50%) in northern OK. Rain chances are expected to end
Thu night. The front is expected to eventually stall and either wash
out or lift back north.

Cooler temperatures are expected north of the front with highs in
the 80s and low 90s whereas south of the front temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid/upper 90s.

On Friday, models show the upper high beginning to build into the
region. This will lead to warmer temperatures Fri. afternoon with
some locations in southwest OK and western north TX potentially
hitting the century mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Models show the upper high continuing to build into and influence
the region over the weekend into next week which will overall lead
to a dry forecast. The exception could be in northern parts of the
fa where shortwaves moving through the flow in the northern/central
Plains may bring a chance for showers/storms although currently
don`t have any PoPs in the forecast just something to keep an eye on.

The upper high will bring hotter temperatures to the fa with a
number of locations probably seeing triple digit highs. The hot
temperatures will combine with humid conditions to lead to triple
digit heat index values, especially over the weekend into early next
week. Heat index values could climb as high as 105 to 110 which will
likely lead to multiple days of heat advisories and maybe
warnings for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities (VFR conditions) are
generally expected to continue through at least this evening.

Southerly winds will increase in speed and become gusty by mid to
late morning. Few to scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will
develop by this afternoon between 4000 to 6000 ft AGL. There is a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas into
southern Oklahoma this afternoon into the evening, which could
impact KSPS and/or KDUA; however the probability is too low to
include in the TAFs.

By late tonight/toward the end of the TAF period, a cold front
will approach northern Oklahoma with an additional chance for
showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 was included at KWWR to account
for this possibility.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  74  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         97  73  98  72 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  95  74  99  73 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           96  68  88  67 /   0  40  30  20
Ponca City OK     94  74  91  71 /   0  30  50  20
Durant OK         94  75  97  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10