933
FXUS64 KOUN 151820
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

  - Record high temperature Saturday and Monday and elevated fire
    danger.

  - The fire danger risk increases again Monday afternoon across
    western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas.

  - Precipitation chances return by mid next week with heavy
    rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Weak "cold" front across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push
slowly south and east this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary a low
level thermal ridge will exist. As we tap into those warmer
temperatures this afternoon with daytime mixing, surface highs will
likely approach or exceed daily records, including OKC, Wichita
Falls and Lawton.

Along with these very anomalous temperatures, veered low level flow
will aid in mixing out or pushing east boundary layer moisture,
which will allow afternoon humidity to drop into the 10-20 percent
range. There will be a wind shift associated with the surface
boundary, but wind speeds should limit overall risk. There is a Fire
Danger Statement out for portions of southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

Front will continue to move slowly south this evening and should
push through the remainder of the area overnight. Drier air will
filter south behind the boundary and this will allow temperatures to
cool, especially across the southeast half of the area where this
morning temps only dropped into the upper 50s and lower 60s. By late
tonight most of the area will be in the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Most of the area will remain on the "cool" side of the boundary on
Sunday, with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s and a light/moderate
northeast to east wind. This is still some 15 degrees above normal
for mid-November.

As we go into Sunday night, shortwave trough will lift northeast
from the southern Rockies into the central Plains. As this occurs
lee cyclogenesis will occur and our surface boundary will begin to
wash out and lift back north. A Pacific front/suedo-dryline will
swing east through at least the western two-thirds of the area
Monday. This will bring drier and much warmer air back into the area
during the day Monday and we will once again be flirting with record
highs.

Deeper mixing, especially across west/southwest Oklahoma and north
Texas, will create an area of stronger winds. As mentioned before,
the veered low level flow will aid in lowering dewpoints, which in
turn with the very warm temperatures will drop RH values as well.
This will combine with mainly dormant vegetation to elevate fire
weather concerns in these areas Monday afternoon.

Experience would say that NBM is perhaps keeping dewpoints a bit too
high across the west, which in turn keeps RH values higher during
the afternoon. Wind speeds may also need to be raised as models
under do wind speeds in these type of scenarios much of the time.
This all being said, currently not meeting Red Flag criteria, but
if above factors change in the ways discussed, headlines are not
out of the question for Monday.

Low level jet develops from central Texas northeast into the mid-
Mississippi river valley Monday night and with this some weak, but
deep waa also develops. However, currently the best chance for any
development of precip associated with this looks to remain just to
the south and east of our southeast Oklahoma counties, but will need
to monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

After the Monday system moves northeast of the southern Plains,
richer Gulf moisture should be displaced just to our south in
northern Texas and perhaps along the Red River Valley of Oklahoma.
As a full-latitude trough moves across the West Coast, a warm front
may begin to lift northward into southern/central Oklahoma late
Tuesday into Wednesday.  This may result in at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms with better chances across the southern
half of Oklahoma and northern Texas.

This is expected to be the general setup, but some ensemble
members suggest a slower movement of the trough which may delay
the onset of much needed precipitation. Currently, the quickly
solution is favored which will bring the bulk of the precipitation
from very late Tuesday into Thursday of next week. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible during this period too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR ceilings expected this TAF period, except for KDUA where MVFR
ceilings could move into the area early Sunday. SW winds will
shift towards the N and NW this afternoon/evening as a cool front
continues to move across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  74  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         47  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           43  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     48  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         56  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...25