377
FXUS64 KOUN 031740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across
northern Oklahoma.

 - Warmer weather expected today and Thursday with highs back in the
80s to mid 90s.

 - Low chances for thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday
with a stronger frontal passage.

 - Cooler, wetter pattern this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Today will be warmer than yesterday, especially across our western
and northern counties ahead of an approaching cold front.

This evening, the aforementioned front will bring low rain chances
(10-20%) to northern Oklahoma. If we get storms, a few could become
strong to severe as instability and shear will be sufficient for
hail (up to 1 inch) and damaging winds (up to 60-70 mph). Storms
will likely dissipate quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating (here, the NAMnest is an outlier, keeping some isolated
activity progressing southward through the night, possibly aided by
a weak low level jet).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The aforementioned weak front is expected to stall in southern
Oklahoma Thursday morning. The airmass behind this front will not be
appreciably cooler, so Thursday`s highs will be similar to today`s
across most of the area. The one exception will be southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas, where a thermal ridge could push
highs in the mid and upper 90s.

A stronger cold front is forecast to approach from the north late
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the area (mainly northern Oklahoma
through the day Friday). A notable temperature gradient is expected
across the forecast area on Friday afternoon as this front pushes
south, with highs ranging from the upper 60s / low 70s in northern
Oklahoma to the low/mid 90s in the Red River Valley.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

With the front lingering in/near the area, low rain chances will
continue Saturday with chances shifting into southern parts of the
fa. Models differ later this weekend into early next week but it
looks like rain chances will continue across the area during this
time period. Some of the models show the remnants of a tropical
system in the Pacific moving into and lingering in the region this
weekend into early next week. Other models show a shortwave moving
across the Plains. Both scenarios would bring the potential for
showers/storms, especially if at the very least some of the moisture
associated with the tropical system makes it into the region.

After Friday, below average/cooler temperatures are expected across
the fa over the weekend into early next week with highs back in the
70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A cold front will bring a wind shift to several TAF sites before
12Z Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
develop along the front this evening and may impact PNC/WWR.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. The
exception may be WWR where low clouds (IFR/MVFR) may develop after
10Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  86  69  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         63  94  70  83 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  96  75  94 /  10   0   0  10
Gage OK           58  88  59  69 /  20   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     59  84  62  70 /  20   0  10  30
Durant OK         66  93  73  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06