251
FXUS64 KOUN 251119
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Remnant showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across Kansas
may approach northern Oklahoma this morning as they weaken.
Otherwise, hot conditions will continue today (and beyond) with
Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of a ~593 dam
mid-level ridge. Afternoon highs will once again be in the upper
90s to mid 100s deg F with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110
deg F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon.

The given synoptic pattern places the Southern Plains within
northwest flow aloft. Various convective-allowing and
parameterized models indicate ascent from a subtle vort max/PV
anomaly embedded in the northwest flow will be sufficient for
convection initiation across northern Oklahoma in an uncapped
environment late afternoon into the evening. Given the ascent
appears subtle, thunderstorms are not a guarantee, but there is at
least a modest chance (~40%).

If thunderstorms occur, the primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts given a large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and
modest temperature-dewpoint spreads (~40 deg F) in a hot
environment. Any thunderstorms should gradually weaken with the
loss of daytime heating during the latter half of the evening as
they move southward.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday: A weak boundary/wind shift will advance southward and
will near be located near I-40 during the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop near this boundary across east central
into southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will
continue. Moisture-pooling near and south of this boundary and
easterly winds will result in even higher dew points with heat
indices at least reaching 110 deg F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory
was issued for Wednesday. There is the potential parts of the
area, especially across southern Oklahoma, may need to be upgraded
to an Excessive Heat Warning. Winds will be light with the weak
boundary in the area, so wet bulb globe temperatures could reach
the extreme category.

Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated in a
west to east direction across the southern half of the United
States. Northern Oklahoma will be on the southern periphery of
stronger mid-level flow. Thunderstorms (or at least the remnants
of thunderstorms) may skirt near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with
most of the convection staying to the north. Otherwise, the heat
will continue. Heat Advisories will likely be needed during this
period.

Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great
Lakes region, which will advance a cold front southward into the
Plains with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is
uncertainty on how far south the cold front and cooler air will
advance with probabilistic guidance indicating a 10 to 15 deg F
range for high temperatures on Sunday (between the 10th and 90th
percentiles). This is the largest temperature spread among
probabilistic guidance in the next week. At this time, the most
likely scenario is a few degrees cooler Sunday with highs in the
mid 90s to low 100s deg F. There is only a 20% chance for high
temperatures in the 80s deg F across northern Oklahoma. That
probability decreases to 10% in central Oklahoma.

Monday: Any cool down will be brief as temperatures will likely
rise early next week with a strengthening low-level thermal
ridge.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue...for now. For the first 12 hours of
this cycle, not much change in the ongoing pattern, just a few
areas of high clouds and VFR ceilings. Short term section above
does a good job of laying out the reasoning, but there will be
some areas of showers and/or thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon and evening. Have carried Prob30 groups for TSRA for the
northern half of Oklahoma, with the areas near the Kansas border
to have the best chance for ceiling or visibility restrictions due
to storms. While kind of a tricky forecast for attempting to
determine the exact spots for thunder...there will be two more TAF
cycles to attempt to refine the areas further.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  76 101  74 /  10  30  10  10
Hobart OK        101  76 103  75 /  10  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX 100  79 104  77 /  10  20   0   0
Gage OK          103  71  99  72 /  30  30   0  10
Ponca City OK    101  74  99  72 /  30  40  10  10
Durant OK         97  79  99  75 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21