614
FXUS64 KOUN 191740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger continues today. Then finally
  some relief on the way.

- A cold front arrives tonight/Sunday, bringing medium-high rain
  chances and more seasonable temperatures next week.

- Limited areas of strong to severe thunderstorms today and
  Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

At midday, the surface features are fairly well pronounced, with a
surface low in central Kansas, roughly to the southwest of
Salina, with a trough of low pressure extending southward into
northwestern Oklahoma. Surface winds are westerly across the
Oklahoma panhandle, while southwest winds are the norm across the
remainder of the area. winds aloft are out of the southwest as
well, and the low level jet remains strong...keeping surface winds
gusting to near 30 mph from Enid to El Reno. These features are
ahead of the much anticipated cold front, which is currently
stretching from near Guymon to Omaha.
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Also of note in the near term are the dewpoints and humidity. The
same things that will keep folks a bit miserable for any outdoor
activities today will also help bring some rain back to the
forecast later. The cold front will have everything to do with
PoPs, as the front will help trigger some showers or thunderstorms
along the front, beginning as early as 8 PM. However, most of
these will be west of I-35 & north of I-40. Overnight, a few
storms will begin to march east, bringing a few lucky folks some
rain in the early morning hours on Sunday.

Chances for rain are fairly low, between 20 and 40% in the
northwest. Even a fewer, unluckier folks, will see storms capable
of producing some hail to near 1" in diameter...or thunderstorm
winds gusting to over 60 mph. These chances are on the low side,
with about a 1 in 10 chance for severe weather for areas in the
slight risk area today.

Fox

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

While only the northwest and then north see a few thunderstorms
tonight and early Sunday, the rain begins to increase in coverage
during the day. Thunderstorm chances increase as the front moves
south during the daytime hours on Sunday, with the highest rain
chances in the afternoon hours. PoPs increase from northwest to
southeast through the day, and while not everyone is guaranteed
rainfall, the chances are much higher than they have been for
months. The rainfall (average rainfall expected to be less than
1") won`t be enough to remove concerns from the drought, but the
pattern is favorable for the rest of the month.

Also of note, tomorrow will be a normal day for Oklahoma and north
Texas. Which means, of course, that there won`t be anything
normal about it. The northern half of Oklahoma will see highs only
reaching the 80s, while the southern half and western north Texas
will once again see highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The
forecast looks much better (cooler) as we head into next week.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms also exists tomorrow,
generally in central and southeastern Oklahoma. CAPE values on
Sunday will rise to the 1500-3000 J/kg range, which is ample
energy to be tapped into by strong lift along the cold front. Wind
profiles support isolated to clustered thunderstorms with primarily
a damaging wind threat, with the strongest storms producing hail
around 1". Severe chances on Sunday will once again be around 10
to 20%).

To clarify, however, the chances for rain on Sunday will be in
the 40-70% range. The chances for any of those storms to become
severe will be around 10%. There`s a much higher chance for rain
than for severe storms.

Fox231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oklahoma and north Texas will remain in the more seasonable
weather pattern through the remainder of the week. Through the
mid-week, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to the
west where upslope post-frontal air assists in the development of
convection on the High Plains, but the question will be if these
thunderstorms can move far enough east to reach the 100th
Meridian. Storm chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday as
models generally show a upper trough approaching the area,
although there are differences in the models on the specific
evolution of the pattern on Thursday/Friday which would potential
affect timing and how high the precipitation chances will be late
in the week.

For mid-week (Monday-Wednesday), there`s about a 80% probability
that thunderstorms remain to our west, with a 20% probability of
the storms making their way into far western Oklahoma.

For Wednesday through Friday, overall, the rain and thunderstorm
chances increase as the upper level storm moves closer. The rain
chances appear to be maximized late Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
This chance remains about 60%, with about a 40% chance of a
slower, drying system moving into Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

26/21

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A shortwave trough in the mid-levels moving across the Central
Plains of Kansas could impact terminal KWWR in northwest Oklahoma
with a 30% probability of severe storm activity by 21Z with
those probabilities of convection impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO
in northcentral Oklahoma after 02Z. Although ceilings may be high
but reduced visibilities in rain could result in brief periods of
an MVFR to IFR category along with gusty variable winds. Expect
terminals KOKC & KOUN in central Oklahoma and KCSM & KLAW in
western Oklahoma to remain in a VFR category at least through 12Z
after which a 30-50% probability of storm activity will be
possible with brief reductions in visibilities in rain and gusty
winds. Expecting terminals KSPS & KDUA to remain in a VFR
category and dry through the forecast period. This mid-level
system will be pushing a cold front across northwest Oklahoma by
10Z shifting surface winds out of the north-northeast behind it.
Expecting this surface boundary/wind shift to only impact
terminals KWWR & KCSM through this forecast period with southerly
winds prevailing overnight across the rest of our terminals. A
low-level jet will increase out of the south overnight with its
maxima generally over central Oklahoma, so did add low-level wind
shear only at terminals KOKC & KOUN after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  94  66  84 /  20  70  60  10
Hobart OK         76  98  66  88 /  20  60  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  76 100  67  92 /   0  60  50  20
Gage OK           70  90  61  82 /  30  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     72  89  64  80 /  60  70  50  10
Durant OK         74 100  70  94 /   0  30  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...68