429
FXUS64 KOUN 251831
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
131 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Heat index values up to 100 degrees, with a few areas of up to
  105 degrees through the week across much of our area.

- Storm chances across a good chunk of our area tomorrow with the
  potential for a few downbursts.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

We continue to expect a couple of showers and thunderstorms to
develop within the "soup zone" of 70-72 dewpoints from southeast to
central Oklahoma. These showers will be very spatially limited in
coverage and small in size, so most people won`t see rain. If you
are lucky/unlucky enough to get a shower today, brief downpours are
the main concern. Loss of diurnal heating will allow those showers
chance to phase out by 9 pm.

The pressure gradient will abate some tonight, and with it the
southerly winds. Lows will be in the 70-73 range.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The dominant ridge across the Ohio Valley will finally break down
and shift east tomorrow morning. In its wake, weak troughing will be
present across much of the northern and central Plains by tomorrow
afternoon. Height falls/forcing will be quite nebulous across our
area, but all week we have seen showers/storms develop in an
environment with absolutely zero forcing. Therefore, it stands to
reason that we will see storms develop toward mid-afternoon,
potentially along a surface trough induced by surface heating in
northwest Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear will be nearly nonexistent, so
single-cell or multicell mode is likeliest. With that said, there
will be around 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, up to 1,200 J/kg of DCAPE, and
PWATS will be 1.50-1.70, all of which are favorable for water-laden
downbursts early in the storm lifecycle. Highs will remain at or a
little below average.

About 20 knots of northwest flow will remain across the area on
Friday with a shortwave crossing the crest of the Rockies. That
means that at the very least we`ll be watching for storms to try to
move into northwest and northern Oklahoma off of the high terrain
Friday night. Whether any diurnal activity materializes and where it
would be is tbd. Temperatures will once again be at or maybe a
smidge below average.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The center of an upper ridge is expected to build across the
Arklatex during the first part of the weekend (Saturday). This
should bring mainly dry conditions along with hotter daytime
temperatures. Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the
mid 90s to near 100. On Sunday, a shortwave trough is expected to
move quickly across the northern Plains. This may push a weak
cold front into western and northern Kansas. The front, along
with increase mid and high level moisture, will bring a better
chance of showers and storms into western and northern Oklahoma
late Sunday into early Monday. With northwest flow aloft by late
Monday and Tuesday, and a weak front boundary, rain and storm
chances will be the (30-50%) range, especially across the
northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible at DUA before ceilings
rise to VFR later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected with daytime cu with an increase in mid/high clouds
overnight into Thursday morning. Some isolated afternoon storms
are possible, mainly across southeast and northwest OK, but
chances remain too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty
south winds will diminish this evening and will increase again
around 14Z/15Z tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  90  72  91 /  10  20  20  30
Hobart OK         72  93  71  94 /  10  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  92  74  93 /   0  20  20  10
Gage OK           70  90  69  93 /  10  30  30  10
Ponca City OK     72  91  72  90 /  10  20  30  30
Durant OK         73  91  74  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30