239
FXUS64 KOUN 051750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Freezing drizzle (northwest OK) and drizzle (elsewhere) this
  morning; light ice accumulations possible on elevated surfaces.

- Temperatures trend upwards Thursday and into Saturday.

- A strong (but dry) cold front arrives on Saturday.

- Colder pattern next week with rain likely with a chance for
  snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

As of 3 AM, the cold front that pushed through our area yesterday
is far to our south over central Texas. The freezing line is
stretched from Erick - Minco - Yukon - Marshall-Red Rock and deep
isentropic lift along with a strong LLJ has produced areas of
freezing drizzle near and north of the freezing line, with drizzle
across east-central Oklahoma. Patchy fog was also observed into
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma early this morning.

Isentropic lift will continue to provide for cloudy skies and
drizzle potential into the afternoon for areas generally east of
Hwy 81. The front will slowly lift northward throughout the day
and cross into our far southern and southeastern Oklahoma counties
by this afternoon. Therefore, northern and central Oklahoma are
expected to remain on the cold side of the front. We have lowered
temperatures quite a bit for today with afternoon highs in the
40`s for those areas. With low-level flow veering throughout the
day out west, clouds should begin to clear across western Oklahoma
and north Texas this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to
rise a bit more in these areas.

Tonight, there is a chance of patchy fog and drizzle redeveloping
over southeastern Oklahoma (and perhaps into central Oklahoma).
There remains questions on how much cloud-cover will abate or
remain, with some of the CAMS suggesting more widespread stratus
and fog/drizzle returning.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A strong jet maxima that is currently moving ashore central
California will advance towards the central plains today and mid-
level height falls will prompt the development of a surface cyclone
over the northern plains. The associated cold front pushes into
Oklahoma on Thursday before stalling near the Red River on
Thursday night. This boundary then lifts as a warm front on
Friday, though how far north remains uncertain. Regardless,
temperatures trend upwards on Thursday and Friday with scattered
clouds.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A series of upper troughs swing across the Pacific northwest and
over the northern plains this weekend, which will drive a strong
cold (and dry) front into the FA on Saturday with some reinforcing
fronts keeping temperatures on the cold side into early next week.
High temperatures will fall substantially once again from the
70`s/80`s on Saturday to the 40`s on Sunday. Temperatures will
remain cold into early next week and trend a bit lower on Tuesday.

A southern stream trough is prog`d to track across southern
California and the Baja peninsula and bring precipitation chances
to our region early next week. Interestingly, this pattern looks
somewhat familiar..similar to the longwave trough that brought us
January`s snow. Fortunately, temperatures are forecast to be
warmer than that event. Rain is likely by Monday evening across
southern and southeastern Oklahoma with snow chances extending
across central and northern Oklahoma. Given the marginal air
temperatures, snow accumulations are light and confined to areas
north of I-40. Precipitation continues on Monday night with chances
decreasing by late Tuesday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

IRF to LIFR conditions will persist for much of the area today
into tonight. Areas of fog/mist (potentially dense in some areas)
are expected later this evening into tomorrow morning. Conditions
are expected to improve towards the end of the TAF period. A cold
front is expected to move in starting Thursday morning, which will
cause southerly winds to veer to the north as the front moves
through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 49  47  56  38 / 10 10  0  0
Hobart OK  50  41  59  35 / 10  0  0  0
Wichita Falls TX  55  52  67  44 / 10  0  0  0
Gage OK  59  36  54  27 / 10  0  0  0
Ponca City OK  43  41  54  35 / 10  0  0  0
Durant OK  60  60  72  50 / 10 10 10  0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30