537
FXUS64 KOUN 310538
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - Continued rain chances through the holiday weekend.

 - Cooler temperatures continue.

 - Couple of cold fronts expected later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The more widespread precip that was anticipated overnight has not
materialized and precip chances have been lowered for the remainder
of the night as was mentioned in earlier update. Will continue this
trend for Sunday as last few runs of NBM have been much too high
with regards to rain chances.

Weak surface front, currently moving into northwest Oklahoma will
continue to move southeast early this morning into the day Sunday.
This boundary or effective boundary from morning convection should
be near or just north and west of I-44 corridor around or shortly
after sunrise. This along with drier air filtering into the area
from the northwest should limit rain chances across the northwest by
midday. Highest chances should be near and southeast of the I-44
corridor by afternoon with a gradual shift to the southeast.

The drier air and some sunshine across the northwest and west should
help temperatures to warm into the 80s across the west, while
further east along and east of the I-35 corridor will hang onto
another day in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A few lingering showers appear possible Sunday night into Monday,
although much of the area will remain dry with more sunshine and
temperatures warming into the 80s.

A stronger shortwave will drop south through the central Plains into
the Ozarks region late Monday into Monday night bringing a better
chance of rain to eastern Oklahoma. Central and western Oklahoma
down into western north Texas remains dry Tuesday with more
sunshine. Temperatures will be stunted in their warm-up as a weak
cold front moves south across the area associated with a stronger
shortwave trough dropping through the mid-Mississippi river valley.
Still most areas, with the abundant sunshine that is anticipated,
should warm into the upper 70s to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Models continue to show a large upper low swinging through the upper
midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday. As this
occurs another, slightly stronger cold front will push south through
the Plains and through the area Wednesday night. This front will
bring another chance of rain to much of the area during this time
frame. Only a slight cool down is expected for Thursday as after
highs in the 80s Wednesday, Thursday will see much of Oklahoma back
down in the 70s. A few 80s will remain across the south.
Temperatures will then warm back into the 80s for the end of the
week into the following weekend. Some. low rain chances may continue
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Most of our terminals will remain in a MVFR category through 18Z.
Our remaining terminals currently in a VFR category will degrade to
MVFR conditions by 08Z.  Convection coming off the Central &
Southern High Plains may impact our terminals further lowering
ceilings to brief periods of IFR conditions and lowered visibilities
in rain exiting most of our terminals by 18Z.  Will keep PROB30s for
TSRA at terminal KDUA from 18-34Z. Otherwise, expecting all
terminals to have returned to a VFR category by 18Z on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  66  83  64 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         84  66  88  63 /  30  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  82  68  87  67 /  40  20  10   0
Gage OK           81  61  86  58 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     78  64  83  62 /  40  30  40  20
Durant OK         79  68  84  65 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68