919
FXUS64 KOUN 161759
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Rain/thunderstorm chances this afternoon/evening.

 - Rain/thunderstorm chances return to northern and central
   Oklahoma tonight into Thursday. A few strong to severe storms
   possible.

 - Hot and humid towards end of the week into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Current radar/satellite imagery shows relatively taller convective
towers over southwestern Oklahoma. Have slightly shifted/expanded
the previous slight chance (20%) PoPs west to match these
observational trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Mid-level ridging will continue to hang around the southern CONUS
today and our area will be on the western periphery of this
feature. Diurnal thunderstorms aided by a moist airmass, are
possible this afternoon and evening mainly, mainly across portions
of western north Texas and southern/central Oklahoma. Gusty winds
and small hail would be the primary hazards with any stronger
thunderstorm that develops.

A disturbance will move through this evening, which will help
push a cold front into the area late tonight. Additional
thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, but will mostly be
confined to northern Oklahoma. There is a low chance for damaging
wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma, but storms should be on a
weakening trend as they move into Oklahoma. Expect gusty winds
mainly with any of this activity. Overnight lows behind the front
will dip down into the upper 60s, while elsewhere will only get
down to the mid 70s.

Bunker


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The aforementioned frontal boundary will eventually stall across
northern/central Oklahoma. The exact location of where this
boundary will stall will depend on overnight convection and if any
outflow boundaries will develop to push it further to the south.
Similar mid- level ridging pattern will exist Thursday, which will
result in mid to upper 90s across the area. Rain/thunderstorm
chances along/behind the frontal boundary will continue through
Thursday into early Friday morning, mainly across the northern
half of the area. Highs on Thursday are not expected to be much
different than Wednesday afternoon.

Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the southern Plains
Friday, which will help to increase the afternoon temperatures.
The entire area will be at least in the mid 90s, with some in the
upper 90s and pushing 100 F. Portions of southern Oklahoma will
have dewpoints in the lower 70s, which will contribute to heat
indices getting close to 105 F by Friday afternoon.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Models show the upper high continuing to build into and influence
the region over the weekend into next week which will overall lead
to a dry forecast. The exception could be in northern parts of the
fa where shortwaves moving through the flow in the northern/central
Plains may bring a chance for showers/storms although currently
don`t have any PoPs in the forecast just something to keep an eye on.

The upper high will bring hotter temperatures to the fa with a
number of locations probably seeing triple digit highs. The hot
temperatures will combine with humid conditions to lead to triple
digit heat index values, especially over the weekend into early next
week. Heat index values could climb as high as 105 to 110 which will
likely lead to multiple days of heat advisories and maybe
warnings for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High probabilities for continued VFR conditions exists at most
central/western Oklahoma terminals through this evening. Current
satellite trends suggests that the risk of isolated/scattered
diurnal convection will be greatest from near KSPS to KLAW. Have
introduced 30% probabilities for brief thunderstorm impacts there
through sunset. Otherwise, prospects for restrictive aviation
impacts will be highest at KWWR and KCSM overnight and into very
early Thursday morning as more scattered convection develops in
vicinity of an approaching weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  94  74  96 /  20  20   0   0
Hobart OK         73  98  72 100 /  10  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  99  72  99 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           68  91  69  97 /  20  30  20   0
Ponca City OK     73  91  72  96 /  30  50  20   0
Durant OK         75  97  74  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...20