823
FXUS64 KOUN 261917
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
217 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Storms are possible this evening along a frontal boundary that
should be located across southern and southwestern Oklahoma. The
environment ahead of and along the boundary will be characterized
by surface-based instability of ~3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of
30 kts. Deep mixing this afternoon will foster downdraft CAPE of
over 1500 J/kg. That being said, any stronger storm that initiates
along the boundary will have the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Additional storms may develop along the Texas Panhandle overnight
and into Thursday morning, and move across northern Oklahoma. The
main hazard will be damaging wind gusts with these storms. A heat
advisory will be in effect Thursday starting at 11 am and
continuing through 9 pm for portions of western, southwestern, and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas. Heat indices in these
areas are expected to get between 105 and 110 F.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Remnant thunderstorms from Kansas could move into portions of
northern Oklahoma Thursday evening and into the overnight hours.
The main hazard will be damaging winds as these storms move
southward. A mid-level trough will move through the northern
Plains and Great Lakes region Saturday and Sunday, pushing a cold
front down into the southern Plains. There is still some
model/ensemble disagreement on how far the front will push and how
cool it will be behind the front. Nevertheless, cooler air is
expected across the northern half of the area over the weekend.
Thunderstorm chances are trending upwards north of I-40 along this
boundary on Saturday into Sunday.

The aforementioned cool down will be very brief as we will get
back into triple digit heat indices by early next week.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of southwest and southern Oklahoma near a surface
boundary. Strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with these
storms. Winds are forecast to become predominantly
east/southeasterly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  95  79 102 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK         75 100  79 105 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 100  80 104 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  97  79 105 /  20  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  92  77 103 /   0  10  10   0
Durant OK         75  96  76  99 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>016-019-020-
     026-030>032.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ017-
     018-021>025-027>029-033>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ021>023-027-
     033>039-044>046-050>052.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...01