451
FXUS64 KOUN 030756
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Rain is likely across south central/southeastern Oklahoma today
  with some potential for heavy rainfall.

- Seasonable temperatures continue today.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

An area of rain across north Texas into far southern Oklahoma
will continue to expand to the north as ascent associated with a
subtle wave lifts into south central and southeastern Oklahoma
later this morning.

With anomalously high precipitable water values present (~1.8 to
1.9 inches), some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The 90th
percentile (i.e., reasonable worst case scenario) among
convective-allowing models indicate the potential for ~1 to 2
inches of rainfall near the Red River. Given the moisture present,
these potential higher-end totals do not seem unreasonable.
Although these totals are unlikely for most, a few isolated
locations could potentially receive this amount of rainfall with
some flooding risk. Scattered showers may make it as far northwest
as the I-44 corridor later this morning, but the heaviest
rainfall should be confined closer to the Red River. These showers
may linger through the afternoon before the wave exits to the
east.

With the wave lifting northward from Texas, abundant cloud cover
will likely persist along and southeast of I-44 today. Seasonable
temperatures for early October are expected once again with highs
generally in the 70s to near 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Some patchy fog is expected early Sunday morning with winds
becoming light and variable with a saturated boundary layer.

Otherwise, decreasing cloud cover on Sunday will result in a
warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s
to the mid 80s deg F. Similar conditions are expected on Monday.
Northerly winds both days will keep temperatures from rising too
quickly even with more sunshine. Dry conditions are expected both
days.

With the relatively dry air mass still in place with northerly
winds, low temperatures Monday morning and Tuesday morning will
be in the 50s deg F for most locations. Some spots across northern
Oklahoma may even see lows in the upper 40s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week as the westerlies retreat northward with a strengthening low-
level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds.

Temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
remains minimal, with even the 10th percentile indicating warm,
above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Both
deterministic and ensemble guidance point to an elongated mid-
level ridge (~585-587 dam) as the primary influence of the weather
across the Southern Plains. High temperatures toward the end of
the week are forecast to climb toward or even exceed 90 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Clouds are expected to linger through much of tonight into
Saturday across central and southern OK and western north TX, with
ceilings mostly VFR/MVFR (IFR at KDUA). Expect some thinning of
clouds and improving ceilings by Saturday afternoon and evening.
Winds will remain rather light from the north/northeast, with more
variability in northwest OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  59  81  55 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  60  84  57 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           77  54  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  56  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  63  85  59 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08