497
FXUS64 KOUN 051855
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong storms
  capable of gusty winds and small hail.

- Increasing rain and storm chances into the weekend. Storms may
  become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as
  the primary hazards. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding
  concerns.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a
  potential for triple digit heat.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A shortwave is ejecting northward ahead of the upper low across
Texas this morning and will approach Oklahoma this afternoon.
Periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are and will
continue to move north across portions of south central into
southeast Oklahoma this morning and afternoon. Morning low clouds
across southern into central Oklahoma are beginning to break this
morning with temperatures expected to warm near to above normal
today in the 80s to lower 90s.

Ample diurnal heating will allow for an uncapped environment this
afternoon with enough buoyancy to support convective updraft
development. Despite the approaching shortwave, flow aloft will
remain weak and bulk shear will be very low. Similar to the past few
days, storms that develop will have the potential to pulse up and
down with a few isolated damaging winds and large hail at times. The
corridor with the greatest chances for storms this afternoon and
evening will be across western north Texas stretching into southwest
Oklahoma and northeastward into north central Oklahoma. Most of
these storms will be diurnally driven, but the increasing low-level
jet could linger some of the showers and storms into late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The upper low over northwest Mexico Friday will begin to lift
northeastward towards the 100th meridian by Saturday morning. This
will bring several rounds of showers and storms through the day
Saturday into Sunday. The greatest chances for showers and storms
Saturday morning will be across north Texas and into southern and
central Oklahoma. A few of these morning storms could become strong
to locally severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
concern. Additional chances for showers and storms will increase
northward across the area during the afternoon hours Saturday with
storms being scattered in nature and may be focused towards
lingering outflow boundaries from Friday night and Saturday
morning`s activity. An unstable environment with slight higher bulk
shear (25-30 knots) than previous days will give way to strong to
locally severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail.

By the afternoon hours, a surface low co-located with the upper low
will approach western north Texas from the Southern High Plains.
This surface low will bring yet another potential round of showers
and storms across Oklahoma into early Saturday evening and
overnight. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS into the late evening
hours as they push eastward with the surface low. Increased surface
vorticity around the low could increase the potential for low-level
shear. Damaging winds will be the primary hazards into the late
evening and overnight hours, but hail and a tornado or two may also
be possible.

PWATs are expected to be anywhere from 1.5-2 inches across the area,
which will lead to a heavy rainfall, high rainfall rates, with any
storms that develop throughout the day. With the scattered nature of
storm development, flooding will heavily depend on areas with nearly
stationary storms on boundaries or areas that receive several rounds
of storms. The area with the higher probabilities for greater than
at least 1-2 inches of rainfall will be across central into southern
Oklahoma and north Texas.

By Sunday, the precipitation chances will exit the area from west
to east with the vacating upper low. Temperatures Saturday will be
slightly cooler than previous days due to increased cloud cover and
rain/storm chances, but highs will still likely warm into the 80s.
Sunday, temperatures may warm back into the 90s across the west but
remain slightly cooler in the east due to lingering precipitation
and cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

After the upper low/trough move to the northeast late Sunday,
upper ridging builds over the southern/central Plains and the
upper flow retreats to the north. This shifts us back into a
generally dry and warm pattern. The ECMWF produces some QPF
Monday night in north central Oklahoma with the potential of
storms moving in from Kansas, but otherwise the week looks dry.
Temperatures will warm through the week as the ridge builds with
triple digit highs returning to the west and the north central
Oklahoma wheat belt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Most of our terminals will remain in a MVFR category due to
lowered ceilings from broken stratus through 01Z. Isolated
convection already breaking out across southwest & southeast
Oklahoma and western north Texas which could impact terminals
KSPS, KCSM, KLAW, and KDUA through 20Z. By 23-01Z all terminals
except for KWWR will have 30% probabilities for storms with those
probabilities increasing to TEMPO groups in time through the
remainder of the forecast period. Ceiling over some of our
terminals may further lower to an IFR category after 08Z. Although
terminals will be mainly dealing with lowering ceilings and storms,
visibilities may also reduce briefly in heavy rain with any
strong thunderstorm cells overhead. Surface winds will generally
be out of the south through the period at 10 kts gusting 15-20
kts through 01Z, then down to 5-10 kts through the remainder of
the forecast. Surface winds could be gusty and variable for some
period as well due to storm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  81  67  85 /  40  90  90  40
Hobart OK         68  83  64  91 /  50  80  80  20
Wichita Falls TX  68  85  66  90 /  70  80  80  40
Gage OK           68  84  63  91 /  10  50  40  10
Ponca City OK     72  82  67  84 /  10  60  90  70
Durant OK         72  82  71  86 /  60  90  80  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68