362
FXUS64 KOUN 221718
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Very light, high based showers seen again early this morning across
western and northern portions of Oklahoma. Where the rain reaches
the ground, mainly trace amounts are expected through day break,
mainly north of an Elk City to Enid and Ponca City line.

Highs today are anticipated to be at least of few degrees hotter
than those seen yesterday with stronger southwesterly low level
winds. Offsetting a more significant increase in temperatures,
especially for western and northern parts of Oklahoma, will be
continued redevelopment of mid/high level cloud cover within plume
of elevated moisture ahead of northern/central plains upper level
trough. Cannot rule out sprinkles through the morning within this
moisture plume (area mentioned above). Attention then turns
toward weak frontal boundary that pushes into northern Oklahoma
late today/tonight in response to the passing central plains
trough. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible near this
front across far northern Oklahoma this evening and tonight,
before the front lifts back to the north on Sunday. Very mild
temperatures expected again tonight, with most lows mainly in the
mid-upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Forecast of broad, flattened ridge to progress westward over the
region this weekend still appears on track. Heights then build
over the southern Rockies early to mid week, with the ECM showing
slightly better consistency and more influence of this building
ridge than other models. The GFS is backing off on its aggressive
convective potential late Tuesday and Wednesday, but enough
signal exists to maintain similar PoPs from previous forecasts
across mainly northern through central Oklahoma. Decrease in
temperatures behind the Tuesday night/Wednesday frontal boundary
appears to be minimal, with southerly flow returning Thursday and
Friday ahead of a potentially stronger front next weekend. This
will keep temperatures above average for the latter part of the
week. Without any significant cooling and dewpoints remaining
seasonably high, heat advisories appear likely much of next week
for a majority of the forecast area (heat indices 105 to 110).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Gusty
south/southwesterly winds will continue through ~sunset, along
with scattered areas of fair weather cumulus. A few (widely
scattered) rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out across far northern Oklahoma this evening, though probability (<15%)
and coverage preclude mention at any terminal this update.

Otherwise, a weak front remains forecast to approach the
Oklahoma/Kansas border region early on Sunday, and may result in
variable winds at KPNC.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  98  77  97 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76 100  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74  98  74  99 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     77  98  77  99 /  10   0  10   0
Durant OK         75  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34