159
FXUS64 KOUN 142331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Rain chances continue today and into Tuesday, mainly in
   southeastern Oklahoma.

 - Rain chances return to northern Oklahoma as a weak surface
   front approaches Thursday and Friday.

 - Warming trend this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

After some morning convection across southeast Oklahoma, yet another
MCV currently just south of the Red River, south of Durant, will
move northeast across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon into this
evening. This will likely result in additional shower and
thunderstorm activity across this area. Will need to watch for some
isolated flooding potential as several inches of rain has fallen
across some of these same areas over the past couple of days.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible elsewhere this
afternoon.

Models do point to a general lull in the activity after sunset, but
could see some late night/early morning activity redevelop across
southeast Oklahoma with the proximity of the trough and some weak
waa that develops.

For late tonight, can not completely rule out some patchy ground fog
but sounding are quite a bit drier in the boundary layer, so do not
anticipate much more than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Models bring another shortwave/MCV out of south Texas northward
toward the the area Tuesday. There is some disagreement on exact
track of this MCV, but it appears it may track a bit further west,
This would bring it closer to the I-44 corridor, which in turn may
bring at least low rain chances along and east of I-44 by Tuesday
afternoon. Trough weakens as we go through Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but still believe there is an outside chance for an
isolated shower or two, but for now will leave the mention of precip
out of the forecast and continue to watch model trends.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move through the central and
northern Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs, a surface front will
slide south toward northern Oklahoma by late Wednesday night. Best
signal for rain remains in Kansas, but some opportunity for rain
will spread south into northern Oklahoma toward Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, broad ridging begins to take shape across the southern
part of the country and with less cloud cover and precip expect to
see a gradual rise in temperatures as we go through the middle of
the week with near seasonal norms by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The mid and upper level flow late this week remains to the north,
and precipitation chances will remain relatively low and confined
to the north for any potential convection sneaking into the area
from Kansas. Geopotential heights are forecast to rise slowly late
this week, so although a mid-level ridge does not build strongly
into the area initially, a warming trends is expected. By Sunday
though, there begin to be signals of a mid-level high building in
Texas with the ridge expanding north into Oklahoma. If this
occurs, we may start seeing the potential of triple-digit
temperatures in the area by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through much
of the forecast. Surface winds should stay south-southeast at
5-10 kts tonight veering more southerly by 18Z at 10-15 kts
gusting 15-20 kts. There is a 30% chance for -TSRA between 12-15Z
across southeast Oklahoma which may impact terminal KDUA. PROB30s
return between 21/24Z for late afternoon convection affecting 3 of
our terminals in central through southeast Oklahoma. Any
convection should be isolated with high-based ceilings just above
the MVFR category, although can`t rule out brief reduced
visibilities in rain should any isolated cells pass over the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  92  74  93 /  10   0  10   0
Hobart OK         71  96  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  94  74  95 /  10  20  10   0
Gage OK           68  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68