501
FXUS64 KOUN 011825
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
125 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Rain chances continue parts of area into Saturday.

- Chance of strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight
although becoming more scattered in nature compared to earlier
today.

The upper low currently over the Panhandles/SW KS is expected to
continue to slowly move across the region this afternoon but
weakening and eventually opening up into a wave tonight. At the sfc,
a sfc low is currently located in NW OK with a dryline extending
southward across western parts of the area. Models show the dryline
moving a bit east with the sfc low drifting south and the cold front
moving into the area later this afternoon. The cold front is
expected to continue to move south and southeast across the area
tonight into Friday.

The large area of rain that has been affecting SE portions of the fa
all morning will continue to gradually shift east this afternoon.
Additional scattered showers/storms will be possible through tonight
in SE portions of the fa but the rain is not expected to be as
widespread/persistent as it was earlier today. An area of 2-4 inches
with amounts as high as almost 7 inches has already occurred across
parts of south central, southeast, and central OK so any additional
rain/heavy rain in these areas could be problematic. However, with
coverage becoming less widespread/more scattered and the overall
potential for heavier rain is expected to be less going forward, we
let the flood watch expire at 1 PM this afternoon. Despite not
having the watch, a few flood advisories and/or one or two more
flash flood warnings may still be needed today/tonight if a storm
happens to go across the right location with the right antecedent
conditions. If things evolve in such a way that it becomes more of a
widespread problem and/or heavier rain is expected, then a new flood
watch may be issued later but for now we do not have one.

Another area of scattered showers/storms is expected to develop this
afternoon into tonight. This activity is initially expected to
develop across portions of northern and central OK closer to the
upper and sfc low which we have already seen some development late
this morning/early afternoon. Shower/storm development near the
dryline will also be possible and then the cold front later
today/tonight as it begins to move across the area. Some of the
storms this afternoon/evening could become strong to marginally
severe with damaging wind gusts, hail, and funnel clouds/brief
tornado or two possible. The potential for funnel clouds/brief
tornado will be more confined to parts of northern OK closer to the
sfc low and boundaries. The potential for strong/severe storms is
expected to diminish this evening. Locally heavy rain that might
lead to some flooding will remain possible with this activity as
well but this activity is expected to occur in an area that in
general received less rainfall so antecedent conditions are not as
bad as parts of south central/central OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper trough will linger over the region into Saturday which
will continue shower/storm chances across portions of the area into
Saturday although rain chances will shift towards southern parts of
the fa with the highest chances in parts of south central/SE OK.
Some pockets of flooding will remain possible in south
central/southeast OK Friday into Saturday due to the antecedent
conditions, especially with any heavier rain.

The cold front is expected to continue to move through the rest of
the fa Friday morning. Cooler air moving into the region behind the
front will lead to near to below normal highs Friday and Saturday.
The cooler air along with clouds/rain will lead to highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s across the area Friday. Highs on Saturday are
forecast to be slightly higher (low to upper 70s). Overnight lows
will also be cooler with temperatures expected to fall into the
low 50s in NW/N OK to the low/mid 60s parts of southern OK/north
TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Low precip chances linger in the south into Sunday, otherwise we get
a little reinforcing shot of cooler air moving south through the
Southern Plains Sunday, but with clear skies expect temperatures on
Sunday to be a few degrees warmer, but only a degree or two above
normal.

By early next week western ridge builds east across Texas and
Oklahoma with better westerly flow to our north resulting in a
warming trend and dry conditions. Temperatures climb back into the
90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Stratus and areas of rain/thunder are expected to continue
yielding reduced category this afternoon, evening and night. The
most persistently degraded category (as low as IFR) is expected at
KDUA and KPNC during the upcoming period.

A surface front, likely to be convectively enhanced, will
continue moving southward into Friday morning, with persistent
stratus and areas of rain likely near and behind this feature. A
gusty north/northeasterly wind is also expected in the post-front.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  66  57  73 /  40  30  20  20
Hobart OK         61  68  57  76 /  40  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  64  72  59  76 /  20  40  40  40
Gage OK           54  66  50  75 /  60  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  69  53  73 /  60  10   0   0
Durant OK         67  75  64  77 /  80  70  50  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09