329
FXUS63 KPAH 181925
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
225 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory continues today through Sunday, with high
  temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the middle 90s
  to near 100 degrees.

- There is a 20-30% chance of showers and storms late this
  afternoon into this evening across mainly the northern half of
  the Quad State.

- A cooling trend will finally begin early next week with the
  passage of a cold front, with temperatures by mid week near to
  even a little below normal.

- The cold front will be accompanied by 40-60% chances of
  showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
  evening, with 20-40% chances tapering off from northwest to
  southeast late Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Winds generally out of the west have picked up a little today,
as temperatures quickly surged into the mid-90s, with highs
projected to be in the upper 90s to near 100, challenging more
record highs. However, convective initiation has begun in Perry
County, MO and just north of Wabash County, IL. Storm
development has begun sooner than most every model, with the
more active FV3 the closest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to continue this afternoon through the evening,
mainly in the northern half of the Quad State where a frontal
boundary is positioned. Robust CAPE and PWs near the 95th
percentile are present, but mid-level lapse rates are fairly low
and shear is very limited. A few, probably sub-severe, decent
wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms.

Winds calm overnight with storm activity waning. The boundary
lifts northward tomorrow, reducing storm chances for the region
this weekend. However, slight chance PoPs were introduced in the
far northeast Saturday and far north Sunday during the afternoon
hours to line up with the D2 and D3 marginal risk areas. Most
likely, storm activity will be outside the CWA, but a slight
shift southward could bring a storm or two to the area.
Convective environment will generally be similar to today, with
plenty of CAPE and moisture, but very limited shear. Highs again
will challenge heat records, especially if dew points trend a
little lower through the weekend.

A building high pressure system over Ontario helps push the
frontal boundary southward through the Quad State as a cold
front Sunday night into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday to Monday night, with a few stronger storms
possible. Southeastern portions of the Quad State might still
reach a triple digit heat index Monday before colder air moves
in.

Afterwards, an upper low located in NorCal/Oregon stalls out
over the Midwest, helping to keep northerly flow across the Quad
State and bringing temperatures down to near normal with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows in the upper 50s to near
60. There is around a 40-70% chance (higher in the north, lower
in the south) of highs below 80 each day from Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Generally
westerly winds early afternoon that will peak at around
6-10kts, with a few isolated gusts. Cloud coverage increases
heading into the evening in the north as a few showers and a
storm or two could develop, but chances still remain too low to
even warrant a PROB30. Winds calm down overnight, with some
potential for minor vsby drops that primarily remain VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL