936
FXUS63 KPAH 282137
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
437 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will rise 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday
  and Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to around
  90 degrees. More seasonable conditions quickly make a return
  on Friday with temperatures trending slightly below normal
  next weekend.

- Rain showers begin to build in from the west on Thursday,
  peaking at a 60-70% chance across the entire region Friday
  morning into Friday afternoon when a rumble of thunder will be
  possible.

- Daily rain chances linger through next weekend with a 50-60%
  chance of total rainfall exceeding 1 inch by Sunday evening. A
  steady rain over a long duration should limit any flooding
  concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A broad upper level trough over the Ohio Valley and high pressure at
the sfc will begin to build east by Wednesday, allowing for a
significant warm up. Rising heights aloft with 850 mb temps of 18-19C
will translate to temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal on
Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from upper 80s to around
90 degrees. Meanwhile, temperatures may also overachieve a bit today
and potentially Tuesday in the low to mid 80s as model guidance
continues to struggle with mixing in the boundary layer. With
dewpoints mixing down well into the 40s each afternoon, min relative
humidity values will peak between 20-30%; however, light winds
should mitigate fire danger concerns.

The unseasonably warm conditions will not last for long as a 500 mb
vort max and closed low ejects northeast out of the southern Plains
on Wednesday, eventually transitioning into an elongated wave by the
end of the week. The modest increase in lift combined with a cold
front that will approach from the west Thursday night into Friday
will bring rain shower chances. The greatest risk on the new NBM now
peaks at a 60-70% chance Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Instability looks to be pretty meager, supporting only a few rumbles
of rumble at most. Rain chances then linger over the weekend as a
shortwave associated with the northern stream quickly moves
southeast towards the Great Lakes region.

Model ensembles by Sunday evening support a 50-60% chance of
exceeding 1 inch while only a 20-30% chance of exceeding 2 inches.
Given a steady rain that will occur in intervals over a long
duration, the potential for flooding will be limited. The GFS has
been more aggressive with QPF compared to the drier ECMWF, skewing
the deterministic NBM forecast too high with rainfall amounts
exceeding 3 inches in some spots. Would expect the rainfall to
continue to trend lower in the coming days as the setup is not
favorable for a heavy rainfall event. The increase in cloud cover
behind the aforementioned cold front will also translate to much
cooler temperatures over the weekend with highs progged to only
reach the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

FEW-SCT high level bases are possible, otherwise it will be a
cloud-free, high pressure-dominated forecast with winds light
or calm overnight. There was patchy fog at KMVN last night, and
that might be possible again tonight, though the signal is weak
enough to preclude from mention at this writing. The eastward
shifting surface high will allow return flow southerlies to
develop tmrw, translating in their genesis from west-to-east
across the terminals over the course of the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$