Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
542 FXUS63 KPAH 172354 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent fall storm system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into late Saturday night. - Some severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday, with a few damaging wind gusts likely and possibly a brief tornado or large hail, while lightning is a widespread safety concern for outdoor activities Saturday. - Locally heavy rain Saturday may lead to isolated flooding issues, but recent dry weather will limit severity. - Cooler, breezy, and drier conditions arrive Sunday, with small rain chances Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The focus of the forecast remains the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night during a fall weekend that traditionally holds numerous outdoor events in the region. Today, high pressure shifts eastward away from the Quad State. Upper- level ridging centered overhead shifts eastward as well, with a dry mid-level disturbance tracking northeastward through the area. No rainfall is expected today, though scattered clouds will move through. Temperatures should land well above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A broad trough steepens as it digs into the Central Plains tomorrow, allowing for southwesterly surface winds to strengthen as the pressure gradient increases. Meanwhile, surface low pressure emerging into Texas/Oklahoma will merge into the trough and get picked up northeastward on the leading edge tomorrow night. As this system moves towards and through the Quad State, the better moisture from ArkLaTex gets lifted northward, but a limited duration is likely to cap dew points around the mid-60s with spotty upper 60s, especially as model soundings continue to suggest afternoon dry air mixing. Along with limited moisture, instability values don`t get particularly high, generally peaking at around 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Favoring severe weather potential is that the upper level flow will have a diffluent pattern near and downwind of the Quad State, and deep layer wind shear will be fairly robust, with a focus more on speed shear. Models have some disparity in timing, with initial storms primarily in SE Missouri and S Illinois during the afternoon, mainly on the northwestern edge of the Quad State. A few models, such as the HRRR, have broader coverage to the Ohio River during the mid to late afternoon, while the global models and NAM/NAM- NEST keep even most of SEMO/SIL largely dry through the afternoon. Hail potential will be better to the west with daytime heating and CAMs suggest the better potential for helicity tracks is to the west in South-Central Missouri as well. Towards sunset, models agree on a more linear MCS structure taking shape along or ahead of the front, sweeping eastward through the Quad State for the evening into the overnight hours, with damaging winds becoming the primary severe weather hazard. A few models show storm development ahead of the line, but limited supercellular potential. A QLCS tornado or two is possible, but will need notches in the line to gain a more favorable orientation relative to the 0-3 km bulk shear vector. Low pressure deepens overnight, with the low-level jet strengthening after sunset east of the Mississippi, helping to maintain severe weather potential through around midnight or even a little later. SPC continues the slight risk of severe weather over all but the northeasternmost portions of the Quad State. Rainfall amounts remain around 0.75-1.5" with the higher totals in the northwest (SEMO-SWIL) but, given ongoing drought conditions, flooding issues are likely to remain minor. A cold frontal passage moves through Saturday night, possibly with the main storm line or behind it with additional trailing storms. Strengthening low pressure will provide for strong wrap- around winds Sunday gusting to around 25-35 mph. Don`t currently anticipate needing a wind advisory, but isolated locations may get close to criteria. Gradient winds will be breezy Saturday as well, so secure outdoor items before we head into the weekend. Cooler weather moves in with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night. Temperatures remain closer to normal for the week ahead. A Great Lakes system early week now appears to be far enough northward to keep conditions dry Tuesday. Meanwhile, a subtropical system tracking through the Southwest may bring late week rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Quiet conditions expected this evening/overnight with SCT- BKN250, no vsby restrictions and winds out of the south to southeast around 5 kts. SCT-BKN060 will increase from west to east after 13z with the approach of a cold front. Winds increase from the south to southwest after 13z to around 10kts with gusts of 15-20kts, then to 10-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts by midday. Showers will slowly spread east across the TAF sites after 18z, with thunderstorms possible at KCGI and KMVN by 21z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...RST