573
FXUS63 KPAH 031134
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for scattered showers and storms will accompany two
  frontal passages, the first this evening through Thursday
  morning and the second late Friday afternoon through early
  Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be fairly light in
  most areas, generally 0.10- 0.25".

- Temperatures will be warm in the mid-upper 80s today and again
  Friday. Each frontal passage will result in below normal
  temperatures in its wake with highs in the 70s on Thursday
  and then again over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The upper level pattern features broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS. Meanwhile a robust shortwave is diving south of Manitoba into
the Upper Midwest today and will carve out a deeper trough over the
Great Lakes as a deep upper low forms and spins over Ontario, Canada
through Saturday morning. This will result in multiple cold fronts
sinking south across the Midwest/Ohio Valley through late week. The
first arrives this evening and overnight, accompanied by scattered
showers and storms. MUCAPE may be on the order of 1000 j/kg, so
respectable for a few storms later this evening and then lingering
into the overnight. Activity should push out of the area early
Thursday morning. The Wabash Valley and EVV Tri-state appear to have
the best shot at appreciable rainfall amounts, with localized totals
of 0.25"-0.50" possible. Southeast Missouri and areas closer to the
KY/TN border may largely miss out.

A secondary frontal passage is expected to occur later Friday into
Friday night. Model guidance is hinting that instability should be
greater with this, suggesting the possibility of higher convective
chances. However, it appears the best chance for higher totals may
reside further south or east of our cwa. The ECMWF continues to be
the outlier though, suggesting more widespread amounts of 0.50-1"
and even localized higher. While we can hope that it pans out (to
help our worsening drought situation), for now we will continue to
side with the rest of the guidance which largely suggests 0.10-0.25"
at best.

After any lingering light rain moves out early Saturday morning, the
rest of the weekend and through at least early next week look dry.
Temperatures will take a tumble with highs only in the mid-upper 70s
over the weekend and lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Slight moderation is expected early next week as the trough begins
to lift out and upper heights rise. A further uptick is expected by
mid next week, which is when we may see mid 80s for highs again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

First issue is a little bit of morning fog across primarily
southwest Indiana. Today will just feature some mid cloud ahead
of a frontal boundary that will sink south across the region
tonight. This will be accompanied by scattered showers and
possibly a few storms, with northern terminals most favored.
Cigs will lower overnight behind the front, going down to at
least low MVFR levels and possibly IFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP