599
FXUS63 KPAH 171121
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast today, mainly
  across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Severe weather
  is not anticipated, but locally heavy rain will be possible.

- The risk of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms
  continues to increase for late Wednesday afternoon into
  Wednesday night. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are
  all possible.

- The hottest temperatures and heat index values of the season
  will arrive this weekend and continue into next week. Daily
  peak heat index values of 100 to 105F are forecast, which will
  lead to an elevated risk of heat-related illness.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Today will see continued isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorms activity as another H5 trough moves NE through the
Lower TN River Valley. Convective activity will be greatest in
coverage across western KY and southwest IN, with more isolated
coverage further west. Overall flow and forcing remains weak,
and organized convection is not anticipated, but with elevated
PWAT values lingering, locally heavy rain and isolated flooding
issues from slow-moving storms will be something to monitor.

Attention turns to a higher-impact severe weather event that
will impact the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A
rather robust cold front associated with a rapidly deepening
surface low over the Great Lakes will move into the region by
late afternoon. The timing will allow for high levels of
destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE), including low- and mid-
level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km. Additionally, low-level shear
will ramp up during the evening thanks to a 40 kt LLJ at 850 mb.
The overall shear parameters are unusually high for the second
half of June.

Thinking currently is there may be initial unicellular
development that would bring a risk of large hail and damaging
downburst winds, following by upscale growth into a linear
convective complex with damaging wind gusts and a few
mesovortex- driven tornadoes. This activity will exit the
region by late Wednesday evening. Depending on how the
environmental parameters trend over the next 24-36 hours, a
potentially significant/widespread damaging wind event is not
out of the question.

Dry and seasonably warm/muggy conditions are forecast Thursday
and Friday, but the first heat wave of the season will begin
this weekend into early next week. As a 594-597 dm H5 ridge sets
up over the southeast CONUS, high temperatures will warm into
the lower to middle 90s. Aided by dew point temperatures in the
lower to middle 70s, daily peak heat index values of 100-105F
are forecast. This heat could last several days into next week,
so the risk of heat-related health impacts will grow with
prolonged exposure to the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Ongoing IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually lift this morning and
improve to VFR this afternoon. Isolated to scattered light shower
and thunderstorm activity will impact mainly parts of western
KY and southwest IN this morning into the afternoon, diminishing
by this evening. Winds will be primarily light from the south.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS