597
FXUS63 KPAH 160642
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
108 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning continues one final day today with Heat
  Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- Storm chances, including strong storm chances, are best with
  frontal passages Sunday night into Monday and Wednesday night
  into Thursday. Both frontal passages bring cooler temperatures
  and lower humidity after they clear out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Saturday was another day of solid HI`s topping out in the
105-110 degree range, adding to our prolonged duration extreme
heat. There were isolated higher totals up to 113 degrees, very
similar to Friday. This was on target and will be so yet again
today with very similar conditions to the past 2 days. Heat
headlines will thus remain in effect thru what will hopefully be
its final day today.

What changes after that is a noisier pattern manifest from
falling heights as the ridge shows some breaks and ultimately, a
couple frontal approaches and passages. The first such will be
tonight into Monday, and there is a widespread swath of
Marginal/Slight Risk severe with its presence, extending its entire
latitudinal bounds from MO-VA. Temperatures and dew points fall off
after passage, but may not quite or fully enough to totally preclude
another heat headline in our south for Monday. The dew point drop
off stalls a little down there in its decreasing wax, as upper 70s
still hover on our southern borders in the late PM, before dropping
off in the evening. Fortunately, high temps do cool back toward
climo near 90F. As a result, at least at this writing, we`re not
prepared to extend, but it will be something to focus upon in the
next 24 hours as peak HI`s along our southern border flirt with
Advisory criteria.

Another system takes shape by mid week, and it is messier in the
models with its resolution, but for all practical purposes, it
makes incoming approach Wednesday with passage Wednesday night
into Thursday. Pops will spike during this time frame and a
sharper punch of cooler/drier air is anticipated when its
passage is completed. While no severe storms are highlighted
now, we suspect this may change as the pattern metamorphosis
occurs and the mid week nears. On the plus side is the fruit
that`ll bear, as we`re looking at dew points returning to the
60s by week`s end, with Thursday-Friday highs solidly in the
mid-upper 80s; a spectacular end to the week weather-wise,
particularly in comparison to the prior week of extreme heat.
We`ll need to enjoy it while we can as both the 6-10 and 8-14
day outlooks return an Above normal temperature signal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Satellite shows mid-high level bases impacting our northern
terminals, specificially KMVN at this writing. There may also be
some patchy fog with associated restrictions to vsbys early this
morning, otherwise, a generally Visual Flight Rules weather
forecast remains in tact with high pressure the controlling
synoptic feature today. A cold front does approach tonight,
bringing increasing rain chances and some probability of related
restrictions to cigs and/or vsbys until its passage is
completed.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$