652
FXUS63 KPAH 291659
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather and more comfortable temperature and humidity
  levels will continue through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (70-90%) Friday night
  into Saturday.

- Daily chances (20-40%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorm
  will continue into the middle next week along with seasonably
  warm and humidity conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Across the CONUS, mid-level troughing over the northeast CONUS
will be suppressed to the south as H5 ridging increases over the
southwest and central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure from
Canada is settling southward across the Great Lakes region,
bringing a welcome break from the unsettled weather and extreme
humidity of the last several days. Northwest flow aloft will
usher high-level wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest into
the area, but the smoke will stay well above the surface.

Unsettled weather will return Friday evening into Saturday. An
H5 trough will pivot around the northern periphery of the H5
ridge into the northern Rocky Mountains. Surface cyclogenesis
will commence on the lee side of the mountains, and an area of
low pressure will move from NW to SE into the region by Friday
afternoon. This will initiate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but the best
chance of precipitation (70-90%) will be late Friday night into
Saturday morning ahead of the associated cold front.

Current thinking is the risk for severe thunderstorms will be
low due to the overnight timing limiting instability. SPC does
have a marginal risk it its Day 3 outlook for a small part of
the Ozark Foothills. If the timing of this system speeds up or
slows down significantly, the chances of a few severe
thunderstorms would increase with the corresponding increase in
daytime heating and instability. Current ensemble guidance gives
the mostly likely spread of rainfall amounts to be generally
0.25-0.75" across the region.

Following the frontal passage, a cut off low will become
centered over the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians. This
will provide weak forcing to initiate isolated to widely
scattered (20-40% coverage) diurnally-driven convection from
Sunday into the middle of next week. There will a lot of dry
hours during this time as well, so it will not be a washout.
Temperature and humidity levels will remain near normal values
for early August.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

High pressure moving into the Midwest will bring quiet weather
through the forecast period. Winds will be from the NE around
4-6 kts...becoming E around 4-6 kts after 15z Thursday. Skies
will be mostly clear, save for isolated diurnal CU. Cannot rule
out some shallow fog development around daybreak Thursday, but
confidence remains too low to include at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS