367
FXUS63 KPAH 311146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return today (primarily in the
  west), peak tonight area wide (60-80% chance), and continue
  through the weekend (30-60% chance). High temperatures may
  struggle to reach 80 over the weekend with the extensive cloud
  cover and rain potential, which could threaten record cold
  highs.

- A few severe storms are possible this evening with the highest
  chance (15%) across southeast MO and a smaller (5%) chance
  extending into southern IL and far west KY. Damaging winds are
  the primary concern but a tornado or two is possible.

- Daily chances (20-40%) of mainly afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms may continue early to mid next week along with a
  gradual warming trend. Highs may reach 90 again by mid to late
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A 500mb disturbance over the Northern Plains will dive southeastward
across the Midwest today and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. This
will prompt a cold front to push towards our region today into
tonight, passing through most of the region Saturday morning. A
plume of higher moisture (pwats over 2") will surge into the region
ahead of the boundary. At the same time a ribbon of higher
instability (MLCAPE of 2000+ j/kg) will develop across Missouri by
later this afternoon and early evening along with 0-6km shear
increasing to 30-35 kts. Thus the environment will be supportive of
a few severe storms, with CAMS suggesting convection to develop to
our west and move in later this evening. It does appear to be a
rather short window for severe potential though, maybe only 2-3
hours, before conditions become less favorable towards midnight and
beyond. While the primary severe threat is across southeast MO,
there is at least some lower potential further east (particularly if
storms move in quicker this evening). While many areas may only
receive 0.25-0.50" from this system, there is the potential for some
heavier swaths in excess of 2" (as depicted by a couple of CAMs)
which could produce localized flooding.

With the cold front pushing through much of the area Saturday
morning, the primary threat for severe storms is most likely to be
to our east across central KY. However, if the system slows down
just enough we may have a small window late morning into early
afternoon for a few stronger storms across the KY pennyrile. The
trend has been a bit faster the past 24 hours though.

As the upper low spins southeastward from Central Illinois Saturday
afternoon into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, scattered showers and a
few isolated storms will persist across our region. Models continue
to struggle to determine the placement of the upper low by Mon-Tues
though, with some suggesting primarily dry conditions for our area
and others keeping daily rain chances in play with a further west
solution.

LREF probabilities for MaxT remaining below 80 degrees are 40-80%
along and north of the Ohio River on Saturday and 50-70% for most
areas east of the Mississippi River on Sunday. Thus, we could
threaten a few record cold highs, which are in the mid to upper 70s
at our climate sites. It will certainly be a rather chilly weekend
by August standards! Temperatures will moderate early to mid next
week, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s. Probabilities
for reaching 90 exceed 50% across southeast MO by Wednesday and most
of the region by Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms will move east across the
region today. A weakening trend is expected through the day. The
chance of TS at the TAF sites is too low to mention, but did
mention showers at all sites except KOWB. Another round of
convection will bring a decent chance of TSRA to all sites, as
it moves east across the region this evening into the overnight.
A wind shift to the west or southwest is expected behind it,
and MVFR or lower ceilings will be possible by the end of the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DRS