723
FXUS63 KPAH 180355
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures expected this week as welcome relief
  from the hot weather.

- Another cold front`s approach and passage brings our next
  storm chances, including strong to severe storm chances,
  Wednesday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

More seasonable temperatures are here this week with relief from the
hot weather. Sfc high pressure moves overhead by Tuesday morning
resulting in a pleasant day with mid 60s dewpoints and clear skies.
The high then shifts east Tuesday night and brings back warm, moist
return flow.

A shortwave aloft begins to form over the northern Plains on
Wednesday and rolls through the region Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning. Ahead of this shortwave is a quick perturbation in
the flow that pushes a cold front through the area on Wednesday.
PoPs are reintroduced into the forecast late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning and last through Thursday afternoon (with a brief
break Wednesday afternoon). Several factors are coming together to
support an MCS threat Wednesday evening maybe into the overnight.
Placement of the leading perturbation aloft will be key. Models
support a low level jet with westerly shear around 35-40 kts
(possibly up to 50 kts per the GFS), decent mid-level lapse rates
around 6 degC/km, and inverted V soundings. Also, the CSU MLP has a
15% wind threat area over SEMO.

Right now there is decent consistency in the deterministic models
and the ensembles with the GFS being the worst case scenario. The
main threat would be damaging wind, but can`t rule out some hail or
even a quick QLCS tornado or two (if things line up just right).
Heavy rain is also possible with 2.2" PWATs. Behind this cold front,
cooler and drier air settles in with dewpoints back down in the mid
60s and seasonable highs to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

With high pressure overhead, conditions are favorable for at
least patchy fog development overnight. KCGI/KMVN offer the
highest probability to see vsbys down to IFR or lower levels.
Skies will be mainly clear through the day on Tuesday, aside
from FEW-SCT high clouds. We may see FEW-SCT cu development at
eastern terminals late morning and early afternoon. Winds
remain light, generally under 5 kts through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...SP