954
FXUS63 KPAH 051942
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
142 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold frontal passage this evening will usher very cool air
  into the Quad State for this weekend. Most locations will see
  frost development, especially Sunday morning, and some
  sheltered locations could experience a light freeze.

- Dry conditions will persist through much of next week. Lows
  through the next 7 days will be in the 30s, while highs will
  be in the 50s this weekend, and then warm up into the 60s
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Occasionally gusty southwest winds this afternoon have allowed
temperatures to warm up more than expected. Enjoy, because a
cold front will pass this evening, and temperatures will drop.
Clouds and cold advection will keep temperatures in the 50s
Friday, then as surface high pressure settles overhead, clear
and calm conditions will allow temperatures to plunge into the
30s areawide Friday night/Saturday morning. Highs in the 50s and
lows in the 30s will be the norm through the weekend according
to this NBM forecast.

The main concern over the weekend will be frost and freeze
potential each night. Calm winds are expected over the Ozark
Foothills and much of southern Illinois Friday night and that
will lead to the potential for temperatures to fall below
freezing and possibly even into the upper 20s in some valleys.
Elsewhere across the Quad State, temperatures should drop to 35
degrees or less and frost formation is likely. Saturday
night/Sunday morning will be the coldest night throughout the
region with most locations dropping to or just below the
freezing mark and widespread frost formation expected. Dewpoints
come up into the middle 30s for Sunday night, so while
temperatures may drop into the middle 30s with some frost
potential, a freeze is not expected.

As for confidence levels and potential headlines, the NBM seems
to be well to the cold side of guidance, and has 30-90% chances
of reaching 32 degrees or below Friday night in southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois, with similar chances throughout
the Quad State Saturday night. The NBM has a less than 10%
chance of a hard freeze Saturday night, and no chance otherwise.
At this time, frost seems to be the more confident and
widespread concern, so would be leaning toward a Frost Advisory
Friday night and Saturday night throughout the region to be
issued either tonight or Friday morning. However, if
temperature guidance trends even lower, a Freeze Warning may be
warranted.

Temperatures are expected to warm up some next week, as heights
aloft rise. This will lead to high temperatures climbing into
the 60s possibly Sunday and then into next week, but low
temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front will move through the region this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to eventually develop over all sites
overnight into Friday morning. The ceilings may clear KMVN by
the end of the period, but elsewhere they will linger through
18Z Friday. Ahead of the front, west southwest winds will gust
15-20kts at times this afternoon, and behind it, similar
northwest winds will develop with mixing in the morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS