691
FXUS63 KPAH 180615
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
115 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm potential exists from late tonight thru Wednesday
  evening; damaging winds will be the main threat.

- Seasonably cooler temperatures with pleasantly lower humidity
  is expected on both sides of the aforementioned mid week
  storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Surface high pressure overtop the FA today continues to draw
down dew points into the mid 60s. With highs slated for the
mid-upper 80s, it will be a pleasant relief from the recent bout
of extreme heat.

The high shifts east tonight as a newly developing system
evolves to our west. The models signal a potential MCS late
tonight as this evolved system moves our direction, and if it
can hold together, we will have a marginal risk of svr/damaging
winds from its punch out approach, at least into our northwest.
CWA. It`ll be a wait-n-see with little/no action beforehand and
not even a pop entering the forecast until after 06z.

The next consideration after seeing what the overnight MCS
achieves in terms of intensity and eastward extent, is where the
boundary sets up within the FA and as the destabilization of
the day occurs, where the eventual development initiates along
it. The environment by mid-late afternoon will be sufficient to
support the going slight risk svr for again, mainly a damaging
wind threat but in the vicinity of the low track/frontal
boundary, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The timing
looks like late afternoon into evening is best, with the highest
threat being along the boundary and in the vicinity of the
wave/surface reflected cyclone track. Pops linger into/thru
Thursday even after the svr threat has passed, until the
penultimate passage of the mean upper trof draws the poverbial
convective-madness to an end. In its wake comes another
nice/cool/dry reinforcing shot of air from surface high pressure
as we finish out the week; temperatures top out in the 80s and
dew points settle back into the 60s again and basically hold
thru the weekend/into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Surface high pressure controls flight weather esp during the
first half of the forecast; as a result, patchy pre dawn fog is
possible with Visual Flight Rules prevalant otherwise with
little more than FEW-SCT bases anticipated. The high then
shifts east and a developing system will approach from the west
late in the overnight planning phase hours of the forecast,
offering returning storm chances with restricted VSBYS potential
and developing/lowering CIGS with similarly associated restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$