550
FXUS63 KPAH 121046
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and mostly quiet weather is expected this weekend
  into early next week.

- Another significant late season heat wave is forecast Tuesday
  through Thursday. There is a 50 to 80% chance of high
  temperatures of 95 degrees or higher Tuesday and Wednesday
  and a 30 to 60% chance on Thursday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a small 15 to 25% chance of
  thunderstorms is forecast Friday into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the I-64
corridor will lift north of the area as a warm front also
departs the area to the north. The rest of the day will be dry
for the great majority of the area, but there is a small
(10-20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in NW Kentucky and
the KY Pennyrile. Temperatures will again be very warm by
September standards, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower
90s from east to west, respectively. Sunday will see more of the
same, but an approaching cold front will try to approach the
region from the NW. This may kick off more isolated storms
(10-20% chance) north of the I-64 corridor Sunday afternoon, but
again the great majority of the area will be dry and very warm
again. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s.
Driven by dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 70s,
heat index values will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

By early next week, the frontal boundary will retreat to the
north as a 597 dm H5 ridge expands over the Mid-South. This will
bring yet another late-season heat wave Tuesday through
Thursday. Driven by 850mb temperatures of 20-22C (in the 99th
percentile), high temperatures will approach record highs, in
the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values in the lower
100s. Overnight lows will be very warm as well for this time of
year, in the lower to middle 70s thanks to continued very
elevated dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Forecast Heat Risk levels are currently forecast to be in the
moderate to major range, but as we progress later into the fall
season, this heat and humidity becomes more and more anomalous,
elevating our concern for heat impacts. Therefore, more heat
headlines may be required for the middle part of next week.

By Friday into next weekend, temperatures will cool down
slightly as the H5 ridge breaks down and a frontal boundary
approaches the region from the NW. This will bring slightly
cooler (but still very warm) temperatures Friday into next
weekend. Additionally, low-end PoPs (20-40%) will return of the
forecast as well Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas of mainly MVFR to IFR fog and low stratus will mixing
away, with bases lifting to VFR by 14-16z. Additional fog
development is possible late tonight, especially in areas that
saw rain overnight. Winds will be light from the W-WSW around
4-7 kts, becoming calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS