091
FXUS63 KPAH 031137
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
537 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy dense fog will be possible over west Kentucky
  early this morning and throughout the area early Tuesday.

- Dry conditions and mild temperatures will be the norm for the
  work week.

- A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast
  Friday. Another round of showers is possible Saturday
  afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler air is expected to arrive for Sunday into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Surface high pressure is getting suppressed over west Kentucky
early this morning, and dense fog has formed, mainly over
rivers and lakes generally east of the LBL. Southwest winds will
be developing farther southeast with time, and may lead to fog
dissipation before sunrise. Will likely issue a Special Weather
Statement to cover the reduced visibilities, and a Dense Fog
Advisory cannot be ruled out, especially over Christian and Todd
counties.

After a weak cold front washes out over the Quad State late
today, surface high pressure will lead to very good radiational
cooling over the region through much of tonight. At least patchy
dense fog will likely be more widespread across the region late
tonight.

Zonal flow aloft and predominant south winds at the surface will
lead to a nice warming trend for the work week. High
temperatures will reach the lower 70s over much of the Quad
State Wednesday and southwest winds will become gusty ahead of
a dry cold frontal passage in the afternoon.

Winds will quickly return to the south Thursday, as a storm
system with a more substantial cold front approaches the region.
This system will pass on Friday. Surface dewpoints will climb
to the upper 50s ahead of the front and that will lead to a band
of showers ahead of it. Ensemble guidance generates very meager
instability, but it is enough to include a small chance of
thunderstorms mainly Friday afternoon. Wind shear would be
sufficient to support a severe storm threat, if better
instability were to develop. However, for now, severe storms are
not expected.

Another potent storm system will sweep through the Quad State
Saturday night. There is a small chance that more substantial
moisture will return to west Kentucky ahead of the associated
cold front Saturday evening, but the large majority of guidance
develops little or no instability ahead of the front. If there
is even some modest instability, a significant severe threat
could develop given the strength of forcing and wind fields.
This is a low probability outcome at this time, but it will be
worth watching as we go through the week.

The Saturday storm system will help to carve out a large-scale
trough over the eastern half of the country heading into next
week. At the surface, gusty northwest winds will usher in an
Arctic airmass, resulting in rapidly falling temperatures
Saturday night through Monday. Some locations may not reach 50
degrees for a high next Monday. It also looks like most of the
area could experience a decent freeze early on Veteran`s Day
(Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

MVFR fog at KPAH and KCGI will take an hour or so to dissipate
this morning, otherwise, the TAFs are VFR. Southwest winds may
gust 15-20kts at the northern sites today. Lights winds are
expected tonight, but visibility guidance is not supporting any
fog mention at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ILZ090-091.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KYZ007-
     010>013-016-017-021-022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS