634
FXUS63 KPAH 212346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible mainly over
  the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri this afternoon. A
  few showers could linger through the night and into early
  Tuesday. Otherwise, the forecast is dry through the end of the
  work week.

- Fall weather is arriving right on time with the astronomical
  beginning of autumn. In general, temperatures will be near or
  a few degrees below normal through next weekend. Highs will
  be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows will be in the mid
  to upper 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

An upper-level low over the northern Plains today will slowly
move east southeast into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
Disturbances in the cyclonic flow to its south will bring a
chance of showers to southeast Missouri this afternoon through
early Tuesday. With some lingering moisture this afternoon,
instability is building over the Ozark Foothills and a few
thunderstorms will be possible. Very localized gusty winds will
be possible to go along with lightning and brief heavy
downpours. Any instability will be lost with sunset, so no
thunder is expected tonight.

Cool, surface high pressure will continue to build across the
Quad State, and there will be plentiful cloud cover, especially
across the northern half of the area until the upper low passes
to the east of the area Wednesday. High pressure aloft will then
build overhead Thursday into Friday and possibly through the
weekend, while surface high pressure remains in entrenched over
the region. This will produce some gorgeous fall conditions.

At some point over the weekend, enough energy may impinge on
the upper ridge to bring a small chance of showers or
thunderstorms most likely to southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois, but the details are too murky at this time to get
excited about any rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Low stratus (with MVFR to low VFR bases) will move from into the
region from the NW overnight...continuing into the morning and
early afternoon hours. These conditions will impact all the
terminals. Some light predawn fog is also possible at CGI, MVN,
and PAH in addition to the low clouds. Winds will be steady from
the N to NE at 4-9 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS