040
FXUS63 KPAH 222335
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
535 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The rest of the weekend will be dry with above normal
  temperatures. Patchy fog, locally dense is possible tonight
  into Sunday morning.

- Another round of rain is expected Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.75 inches
  are forecast on average.

- Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal by
  Thanksgiving with dry conditions into the first half of next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A shortwave is now moving east of the FA allowing for dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend. Sfc high pressure will
begin to build in from the west tonight into Sunday, with
visible imagery already showing skies clearing across the north.
The boundary layer will quickly decouple tonight with
radiational cooling, supporting patchy fog that can become
locally dense. Given residual wet ground conditions, model
guidance may not be aggressive enough with the potential for fog
development into Sunday morning.

The rest of Sunday will feature ample sunshine while Monday will
start off dry with increasing clouds ahead of the next system. Highs
will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s both days. By Monday
afternoon, a 500 mb low currently over the SW CONUS will approach
from the central Pains as a shortwave. Increasing PVA combined with
a weak area of sfc low pressure over eastern Kansas and western
Missouri will support rain chances Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. As a secondary area of low pressure develops
over Minnesota, there still remains some disagreement among
model guidance in how quickly the primary system weakens Tuesday
morning. The general ensemble consensus is for 0.25 to 0.75
inches of QPF from northwest to southeast, with locally up to
1.00 inch near the TN border.

After the storm system clears Tuesday, a broad 500 mb trough digs
across the FA through the latter half of the week with a ridge of
sfc high pressure building in from Canada. Much cooler
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal can be expected
through Thanksgiving along with tranquil conditions. The next
chance of pcpn holds off until the following weekend when
another front is progged to approach in the Sunday to Monday
period. Unlike the first system, there may be more moisture and
instability to work with along a tight baroclinic gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rather challenging aviation forecast overnight into Sunday
morning with lingering low level moisture. Model guidance is
not in great agreement, but some form of low stratus and/or fog
(possibly dense) is likely to impact at least portions of our
region. Lingering low MVFR cigs across our south will struggle
to clear this evening, and may actually advance back northward
at some point. KCGI/KPAH have the highest likelihood at
experiencing the low stratus or possible dense fog, which may
linger through Sunday morning. However, it`s quite possible some
form of this develops in our northern terminals as well. There
is also rather low confidence on how quickly we clear out on
Sunday, assuming the stratus/fog materializes that is.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...SP