751
FXUS63 KPAH 090551
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect this afternoon through
  Wednesday evening for heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees.
  Peak values today however will be closer to 100 degrees.

- Patchy fog this morning will be followed by mainly dry
  conditions until Wednesday when daily shower and thunderstorm
  chances around 40-60% make a return through the end of the
  week.

- A few stronger to potentially severe storms are possible on
  Wednesday and especially Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A warm front is lifting north of the FA this morning as a broad
upper level ridge begins to build more east with drier conditions.
Patchy fog remains possible with mostly clear skies; otherwise,
southerly return flow will increase the heat and moisture each day
as a warm sector regime dominates through the first half of the
week. As a result, a Heat Advisory is now in effect this afternoon
through Wednesday evening for heat index values of 100 to 108
degrees. While most of the period through Tuesday will be dry,
the one caveat for tonight into Monday morning is the ARW which
shows the potential for a complex of storms to move downstream
from central Illinois. At the moment this is an outlier with
most model guidance including the NBM keeping any rain chances
north of the FA.

As the ridge of high pressure begins to breakdown in the latter half
of the week, daily shower and thunderstorm chances around 40-60%
make a return on Wednesday with a series of shortwaves moving
across the Ohio Valley. Relief from the heat eventually arrives,
as a cold front sags southeast and becomes stationary over the
FA late Thursday into Thursday night. In the wake of the front,
some of the heat headlines may eventually need to be extended
into Thursday for portions of the FA contingent on timing. With
an increase in wind shear and sufficient instability Wednesday
and especially Thursday, a few stronger to potentially severe
storms will be possible. Heavy rainfall will also be another
hazard of concern with PWATs exceeding 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Patchy ground fog may become a factor over the next few hours if
winds can get completely calm. Still some drainage winds at most
airfields but conditions look like they will become modestly
favorable for patchy fog by 2 to 3 am Sunday. After sunrise VFR
conditions appear likely with drier weather anticipated.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /9 PM
     EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG