797
FXUS63 KPAH 050443
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1043 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur
  across the area at times Wednesday through Saturday evening.

- It will turn colder Sunday and with temperatures remaining
  below normal into early next week. Overall confidence for any
  light precipitation is low (less than 20 percent) in this
  time frame until perhaps Tuesday or after.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

High pressure continued to press south across the area, with
northeast trajectories drawing some drier air down into the
region. This has resulted in slow clearing into southern IL and
southwest IN and parts of SEMO. This southward trend should
continue into the evening before we transition back to overcast
conditions as low level theta-e / moisture advection increase.

Overnight, low level lift is seen forming over the area in the
0-1km layer that could result in drizzle that transitions to
some light rain / drizzle tomorrow morning. As the day wears
on, the approach of a mid level s/wv coincident with northward
moving warm front should increase the prospects of showers and
even a few storms. The HiRes guidance isn`t showing a great deal
of coverage at any given time. Expect more of a scattered to
numerous coverage on the radar later tomorrow and tomorrow
evening. That coverage should pick up Wednesday night east of
I-57 and I-24 and especially over the KY Pennyrile region.

The marginal severe risk by SPC is o.k. for now for later
Wednesday night into early Thursday as we see an uptick on 0-3km
speed and directional shear, with 0-500m ML CAPE 400-700 j/kg,
with surface dew points getting just above 60 in the warm sector.
The focus area (warm sector) is west KY and especially from
around the Lakes area ENE to Hopkinsville and Greenville.

Next focus for precipitation will be Saturday into Saturday
night as surface low pressure moves from Missouri to the Ohio
Valley region. We should see temperatures well into the 60s to
around 70 with above 60F dew point air returning. However the
models are generating limited convection without much of a focus
aloft. With any convection we do get, the models suggest enough
shear and seasonally adequate instability for a few stronger
storms.

It will turn colder in the wake of the aforementioned system
Sunday into early next week. The upper level flow remains quasi
zonal, but strong surface high pressure becomes expansive over
the nation east of the Rockies. Not too concerned with the
minimal NBM PoPs in this time frame as the focus for any
moisture of consequence will be to our south, at least until
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

MVFR ceilings early in the TAF period will give way to IFR
ceilings during the day Wednesday and possible LIFR Wednesday
evening. Visibilities will likely be reduced as well with rain
expected at each TAF site and a sharp low-level inversion in
place. LLWS will likely develop toward the end of this TAF
issuance; however, it may be just beyond 06Z Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC