071
FXUS63 KPAH 260814
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher uncertainty in the forecast for today with storms
  possible. Some may be strong to severe with damaging wind the
  main threat.

- Brief respite from the heat today and Thursday.

- Hot again Saturday with heat indices around 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There is higher uncertainty in the forecast today as a shortwave
trof moves through aloft. CAMS are not really in agreement and
aren`t doing the best job with the convection that is currently
ongoing across the area. The HRRR looks to be the best initialized
so far and so have leaned towards that for the forecast PoPs today.
There might be a bit of a lull this morning then convection picks
back up this afternoon. This lull could be disrupted though by some
ongoing convection across northwest MO that might make it to SEMO
this morning (if it holds together). Storms today will be pulsey in
nature due to weak shear but strong instability. Damaging wind would
be the main threat for stronger to severe storms. Enjoy the cooler
temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s
today as a front moves through in the afternoon/evening.

Thursday will continue to feel better as we get a brief break from
the heat and humidity with drier conditions and highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Friday the heat starts coming back as temperatures climb
back up into the lower 90s. Saturday will be another hot and humid
day with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices around 105.
This may be mitigated some though by convection which starts off
Saturday morning and picks up through the day. A front is progged to
move through Saturday night into Sunday. Storm chances sag south on
Sunday and we get another brief respite from the heat with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Heat comes back by Tuesday however with highs
back in the mid 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SHRA/TSRA will continue to be the main impacts to the terminals
overnight and on Wednesday. Confidence in timing is still low.
CGI/PAH will likely see storms over the next couple of hours
before a short pause. Additional activity is expected on
Wednesday. Late in the period should see drier conditions with
rain/storms exiting the area. Predominant VFR forecast through
Wednesday night. Winds will increase from the southwest
Wednesday and will veer toward the northwest late in the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...AD