110
FXUS63 KPAH 190002
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
702 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather is expected at times this weekend, with
  multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast late
  tonight through Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon
  and evening.

- A few storms could be strong to severe tonight into Saturday,
  but the severe risk appears to be a bit higher on Sunday.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week, a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms will arrive for the latter half of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A cold front is expected to stall out to the northwest of the area
tonight through Saturday night before shifting east through the area
Sunday night into Monday. The front being nearby through that time
period will allow several rounds of showers and storms to traverse
the area. The greater focus for showers and storms will be closer to
the frontal boundary in SEMO into western portions of southern IL
tonight through Saturday night before spreading across the entire area
Sunday into Sunday night.

The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will be across
southeast MO into southern IL through most of the weekend. Deep
layer shear is progged to be around 50-60kts ahead of the frontal
boundary tonight; however, MUCAPE is expected to gradually diminish
as the storms progress eastward into SEMO/IL late tonight. The main
threat is expected to be hail and damaging wind gusts with the
timing being around 08Z/19-13Z/19. The severe weather threat
may be higher across the area on Sunday as the frontal boundary
moves through the area from west to east. Instability values are
higher, in the 800-1500 J/kg range, with deep layer shear
pushing around 40-50kts somewhat orthogonal to the front. This
could lead to a bit more organized threat for Sunday afternoon
and evening. The marginal and slight risk areas look good from
the SPC; however, they may expand a bit to the east for Sunday.
Rainfall totals continue the downward trend, especially for
locations east of the Mississippi River. A general range of 0.50
inches to around 1.5 inches are in the forecast with the
heavier rain focus in SEMO into western portions of southern IL.


Once the frontal boundary shifts east of the area on Monday, the
main focus will turn to the middle to end of next week. A low
pressure system and associated frontal boundary will push into the
area as temperatures warm into the low 80s. Dewpoints will be
pushing close to 60 or into the 60s by that time period as well.
That just means the risk of storms will increase for that time
period; however, it is a bit early to determine if the storms will
be severe. Instability looks like it would be ample for stronger
storms; however, shear is currently looking to be much weaker.
Something to keep an eye on through the week as that time period of
concern is still several days away.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Still expecting a broken line of showers and storms to approach
the western TAF sites late tonight into early Saturday morning;
however, they will likely be on a weakening trend by that time.
MVFR cigs will move in from the west by morning and may continue
through much of the day, although there is some potential for
VFR recovery at OWB/EVV late in the period. Gusty winds will
continue for a few more hours but should subside overnight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...AD