267
FXUS63 KPAH 201910
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Heat Advisory comes to an end at 7 PM this evening. Most
  locations will experience 95 to 100 degree heat indices this
  afternoon.

- The heat is off! A cold front will usher in much cooler air to
  the region, as it moves through tonight. Temperatures for the
  next week should be near normal with highs near 80 and lows in
  the upper 50s.

- An area of showers and thunderstorms will spread east along
  the I-64 corridor late tonight into Monday morning. Another
  area will spread east across the southern half of the Quad
  State late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The
  chance of rain through the period is 30-60%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

High clouds have been effective in holding temperatures back a
bit through the day, but most locations will still see
temperatures or heat indices in the 95-100 range. Will let the
Heat Advisory die a natural death at 7 PM this evening.

The cold front will push through the area tonight. Minor
disturbances in the weak westerly flow aloft will bring multiple
chances of showers and thunderstorms to the Quad State late
tonight through Tuesday.

The chances begin late this evening through Monday morning
along the I-64 corridor. Much of this activity may remain north
of the area, but if we do get some into the area, especially
this evening, there may be enough shear and instability to
support a stray strong to severe storm with damaging winds.

The better chance will be late Monday afternoon over southeast
Missouri, especially over the Ozark Foothills. Moderate
instability is possible over there, so a stray storm could pulse
up close to severe levels with very isolated gusty winds. There
is a consistent signal amongst most of the guidance to then slowly
push scattered showers and thunderstorms eastward across the
southern tip of Illinois and much of west Kentucky Monday night.
Instability will be limited so lightning and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary concerns. Some showers may linger
into Tuesday over west Kentucky before the mid/upper-level
energy pushes east of the area.

Surface high pressure and eventually high pressure aloft will
then keep the Quad State dry with seasonable temperatures
through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The TAFs are VFR through 06Z. As surface high pressure builds
southward into and through the region tonight, MVFR or lower
ceilings will spread south across the northern three TAF sites
overnight. IFR ceilings are most likely at KMVN. The ceilings
will gradually lift in the morning and should be VFR by the end
of this forecast except at KMVN. As for convection, forecast coverage
is dwindling, but did throw in a PROB30 for TSRA/SHRA at KMVN
06Z-12Z. The convection could impact KEVV and KOWB in the
morning, but confidence is too low to mention there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS