833
FXUS63 KPAH 151031
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous late season heat wave with high temperatures near
  or at record levels will begin today and continue through most
  of the week.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect this afternoon through
  Wednesday evening for the entire area. The Heat Advisory may
  need to be extended to Thursday or Friday as well.

- Cooler and less humid conditions will arrive Sunday and
  Monday, along with a 20 to 40% chance of showers and
  thunderstorms on both days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The much-advertised late season heat wave begins today, as very
strong H5 ridging becomes centered over the area. The latest
ensemble guidance continues to show H5 heights around 600 dm and
850mb temperatures peaking around 20-22C each afternoon through
at least Thursday. Both values are at the climatological
maximum for the time of year. This will yield maximum
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s (possibly isolated low
100s) and minimum temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
during this time. Both the forecast high and low temperatures
will approach or break record hot/warm values this week. See the
Climate section below for more details. Humidity values will be
greatest today and Wednesday, with dew point temperatures
reaching the lower 70s. This will yield widespread heat index
values around 105 degrees today and Wednesday. The current Heat
Advisory runs through 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

On Thursday and Friday, dew point temperatures will begin to
draw downward into the middle to upper 60s due to moisture being
extracted from the soil. Air temperatures will still be in the
upper 90s for most locations, but there is more uncertainty
regarding if the heat index values will breach the triple
digits. However, given the late season nature of the heat and
impacts to outdoor activities, an extension of the Heat
Advisory through the end of the work week is possible.

The H5 ridge will begin to break down this weekend, but high
temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. However, there is better model agreement that some
noticeable relief from the heat will arrive beginning Sunday
into early next week as frontal boundary attempts to move south
through the area. This will yield high temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s on Sunday and lower to middle 80s on Monday.
Additionally, there may be enough moisture and forcing from the
cold front to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Light south winds will this morning around 3-5
kts will increase and veer to the SW around 7-12 kts with gusts
up to 15-20 kts possible through this afternoon. Tonight winds
will relax and back to the south again around 3-5 kts. FEW-SCT
high-based CU will develop late this morning through the
afternoon, with bases around 7-12kft. Tonight, lingering mid-
level cloud decks will linger at MVN, EVV, and OWB.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Record high temperatures for Tuesday, Sep 15:
CGI: 96 (2025)
MDH: 106 (1939)
EVV: 99 (1939)
PAH: 102 (1939)
POF: 101 (1939)

Record high temperatures for Wednesday, Sep 16:
CGI: 99 (2019)
MDH: 101 (1927)
EVV: 99 (1898)
PAH: 97 (2019)
POF: 101 (1927)

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for MOZ076-086-087-100.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for KYZ004-005-007>022.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>003-006.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
CLIMATE...DWS