252
FXUS63 KPAH 141919
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and storm chances continue through much of next
  week.

- Humidity levels will remain high through the period and
  temperatures will creep into the upper 80s by the middle of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the southwest and
southeast CONUS through at least Thursday with weak troughing
expected to linger across the central CONUS. At the surface, a ridge
will remain nearly stationary just of the southeast coast. The flow
around the western edge of that surface ridge will keep very warm
moist southerly flow across the CWA through at least Thursday. The
combination of weak troughing aloft along with the increased
moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) will keep intermittent chances for
showers and storms in the forecast through much of the week.

There are a couple time periods where the showers and storms will be
more concentrated. The first will be into this evening as an upper-
level low passes overhead; although, the coverage should diminish
after loss of daytime heating. The next best chance for showers and
storms will be Sunday night into Monday as yet another shortwave
slides through the area late Sunday night through the day Monday.
Heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns with any of the storms
as PWAT values are expected to remain near 1.5-2 inches, which is
around 150-175% of normal. The heavy rain will likely be isolated;
however, the flooding associated with any slow moving storm could be
substantial with the storms being very efficient rain producers.

Typical summer-like afternoon shower and thunderstorms can be
expected through Wednesday before the next trough axis sweeps
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.  That trough will
also have an associated cold front with that to help focus shower
and thunderstorms activity. Shear values are forecast to be around
1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear values increase up to around 30-
40kts. This would give a better chance of seeing more organized
convection and also increase the severe weather threat.

Beyond those more active time periods, the aforementioned ridging
over the southwest CONUS, will shift eastward into the central CONUS
as increased moisture lingers in place. The combination of upper-
level ridging and increased dewpoints will allow it to feel very
summer-like (it will officially be summer) Friday into next weekend.
Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s with heat index
values pushing close to the mid 90s!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected this afternoon
as showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through each TAF
site. Heavy downpours may lead to sudden reductions in
visibility at times through at least sunset. If clearing occurs
tonight, fog may develop late in the night into early Sunday
morning, allowing for visibilities around 2 to 3 miles or
possibly lower. Again, a lot of that depends on any clearing
that occurs. The chances of showers and storms will be more
limited for the day Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC