106
FXUS63 KPAH 011827
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
127 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow
  afternoon Unfortunately, amounts will likely be light
  (0.10-0.25" at best) and likely won`t help with our worsening
  drought situation.

- Multiple frontal passages late in the week will lead to
  reinforcing shots of cool fall-like temperatures. Highs in the
  70s are likely on Thursday and appear increasingly likely
  again next weekend after a brief warm-up on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Large scale flow aloft continues out of the northwest with an
upper low centered over NY/PA. A shortwave trough over the
Dakotas will approach by tomorrow. Column moisture remains
fairly limited, but does improve a bit by midday and most
guidance sparks a shower or thunderstorm or few over parts of
southwest Kentucky tomorrow afternoon. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS
soundings show deep boundary layer mixing with dewpoints falling
into the upper 50s in the afternoon. This gives us about 750
J/kg of MLCAPE with a strong inverted-V. I think mid-level cloud
may keep us from heating up quite as much as the guidance shows
and we may struggle to get even that unstable. With the
thermodynamic profile advertised however anything that gets
going could produce a little bit of locally gusty wind.

The broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes region then swings
another closed low on its southwest periphery this sends
another front in two waves on Thursday into Friday. GFS/ECMWF
are in slightly different camps on timing. This leads to an
overall lower PoP than the pattern suggests due to these
differences. I feel confident we will see an initial frontal
passage that retrogrades westward before a more definitive
passage late Friday or early Saturday and that there will be at
least a little precip associated with each passage the question
is just, exactly when/what 12-hour period. It should be noted
though the chance of even as much as a half inch of rain over
the next 5 days seems like long odds at any given location.

Behind the more definitive front, temperatures drop with highs
in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. So this
summer season we have had a little bit of a late start to warm
temperatures, a baking and historically humid July and then a
cooler and dry August. September looks to mostly be a
continuation of August so far with the cyclonic flow over
eastern Canada showing no immediate signs of letting up which
would also support dry/drought conditions persisting as well.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period with winds
remaining relatively light. Low level moisture profiles do not
currently appear favorable for widespread fog overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG