763
FXUS63 KPAH 211146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A welcome break from the heat is here! More cooler, seasonable
  temps will filter in behind the cold front by Tuesday and last
  throughout the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cold front is slowly sinking south through our area overnight and
early this morning then stalling out across our south later today
before finally moving south of the CWA this evening. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms are currently just outside our northwest
border and should generally stay there. Instability/support for
storms falls off sharply the further into the CWA you get. Some
models are little more bullish with precip chances later today
passing through from SEMO into southern IL and western KY. However,
NBM only has some weak 20% ish isolated chances with the front
lingering today but overall the day is mainly dry. Best chances are
over the Ozark Foothills for a couple hours in the late afternoon.
Some of those weak 20% isolated chances linger into Tuesday with a
shortwave passing aloft, but again the day is mainly dry. Much
cooler and more seasonable temperatures fall into place behind the
front with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.

Dry and seasonable conditions are in place Wednesday on through the
weekend with a slight warm up next Sunday into Monday. Sfc high
pressure sets up over the Great Lakes and east of the lakes with
upper level ridging over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Mainly high clouds on satellite currently moving across the
area, with the exception of the MVFR cigs over OWB. Mid level
SCT to BKN cloud deck expected through the day today. This deck
will fill in and lower overnight to MVFR/IFR. There is also some
fog potential at CGI overnight. Northerly winds today behind
the front at around 6-8 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD