048
FXUS63 KPAH 122248
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
548 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and
  seasonally mild.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances return by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Blocky upper pattern persists as we sit pretty much directly
under a sharp ridge in between deep troughing to the east with
two embedded lows, and broad troughing to the west. About the
only item of any note this afternoon is surface moisture is
slightly higher now than it was 24-48 hours ago, which might
result in a little more fog overnight tonight than what we have
seen the last few days. Max temperatures will eke upwards just
a little each day over the next few days with broad/deep layer
ridging overhead through at least Thursday.

As the weekend approaches enough jet momentum comes in over the
Pac NW to get things moving a a little and guidance remains in
good agreement in bringing a strong upper troughing towards the
area by Friday night into Saturday. GFS deterministic and
ensemble guidance is a little faster with this system, with.
ECMWF members about 6-12 hours slower. Either solution would
bring a good chance of showers and storms to the area. Bay of
Campeche dewpoints are in the low 70s so southwesterly moisture
return will have a little something to work with. Deep and lower
level shear also increases ahead of this system. CSU-MLP and
CIPS analog severe guidance show a little ripple in that window
as well. That seems about right given the synoptic picture,
there is some potential but it doesn`t look lined up exactly
right at the moment for a more substantial risk with the best
ascent/shear/instability axis to our south presently.
Nevertheless, something to watch as we enjoy a string of very
pleasant and tranquil conditions.

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the rest of the day.
Shallow ground fog will be a factor again overnight mainly at
CGI and any airfields near bodies of water. Light winds are
expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

High level clouds will begin to build in from the west late
tonight into Monday, gradually lowering to 10-15 kft AGL.
Shallow fog remains possible early Monday morning, especially at
terminal KCGI. Winds will be light out of the northeast by
midday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW