057
FXUS63 KPAH 200750
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
150 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above and near average temperatures continue through early
  next week.

- More beneficial rain is expected today through Friday night,
  around 1-2" expected by Saturday morning.

- Temperatures cool down for Thanksgiving next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A weak sfc warm front is slowly lifting northward and will stall out
later today. WAA coupled with isentropic upglide will support
widespread showers and storms today. Given the set up, low cigs are
expected to hang around as well. This, in consideration with
the WAA, means our high-low spread should be around only 10 ish
degrees today, so brought highs down from NBM deterministic.
The front stays stalled before essentially dissolving on Friday.
This will keep us wet through Friday with around 1-2" total
accumulation expected. This is in line with PWATs around 1.5"
across the area.

In terms of severe potential, with the exception of the NAM which
brings some instability into the area, other models keep the best
instability to our south. Mid level lapse rates are also poor, about
4.5-5 degC/km. This will limit the severe potential.

Sfc high pressure builds in for the weekend and brings drier
conditions. Temperatures will be right around to just above average.

More wet weather is in store for the start of next week as an upper
level low ejects into the Plains. PoPs start to increase from the
southwest Sunday night (which might be a little too early according
to the EC and GFS) through Monday and taper off Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The sfc low moves through MO on Tuesday and brings a
cold front through. There is still some timing and placement
discrepancies between the EC and GFS though.

Behind the cold front a broader, longwave trof aloft funnels colder
air into the region for Thanksgiving and beyond, bringing below
normal temperatures. Models are in decent agreement with this
pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

It looks like a persistence strategy forecast is the way to go,
given the trends toward persistent low cloud cover. Time/height
cross sections and sounding data support continued restricted
bases, although the models continually want to hint at a
scattering of the lower bases for a higher CIG...we`ll refrain
from that this writing and amend as necessary if it comes to
fruition. If it does, it will be short-lived, as a warm front
lifts north later tonight into tmrw. It will reinforce MVFR/IFR
bases and offer increasing rain chances with time. Fog may
restrict vsbys tonight while rain chances offer vsby restrictions
tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...