319
FXUS63 KPAH 131855
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
155 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat and humidity will linger across the area
  through the upcoming weekend. Heat index values will range
  from 105-115 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning
  continues through the weekend.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a bit lower humidity values
  are in the forecast for the first half of next week. However,
  temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s each
  day. The lone exception will be the Evansville Tri State where
  upper 80s are forecast for Tuesday afternoon.

- A 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for
  Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A weak warm frontal boundary is draped across our far northeast
territory early this afternoon. Some showers associated with the
boundary are pushing east and should clear the Quad State in the
next hour or two. Otherwise, high pressure aloft will build over
the Quad State through Saturday and linger overhead into Sunday.
That should suppress any attempted convection across the region
through Sunday.

The Extreme Heat Watch continues for the entire area through 8
PM Sunday. It is likely that afternoon dewpoints will gradually
trend downward through the weekend, but temperatures will likely
increase into the upper 90s and possibly the triple digits,
especially over southeast Missouri. The net result will still
be heat indices of 105+ each day through Sunday. Low
temperatures will only drop into the middle to upper 70s each
night, so there will be little relief from the heat and
humidity.

An initial nearly zonal flow aloft across the northern tier of
the country this weekend will eventually give way to a ridge
west, trough east pattern, resulting in some minor west
northwest flow dipping into the Quad State Sunday night into
Monday. Some embedded disturbances will provide chances of
showers and thunderstorms, especially north and west of the Ohio
River. Given plenty residual heat and humidity, a few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. The upper ridge will quickly
pop back northeast over the Quad State Tuesday night into
Wednesday resulting in dry conditions and increasing
temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The TAFs are VFR. A few showers will flirt with the vicinity of
KOWB early this afternoon, otherwise the forecasts will be dry.
There will be a light south wind through the night which should
prevent any fog formation.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS