Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
209 FXUS63 KPAH 160743 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 243 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and seasonably warm conditions will condition today through Thursday. - A robust fall storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region, mainly Saturday afternoon into late Saturday night. A few of the storms could reach severe levels, but confidence is low. - Another disturbance will bring renewed rain and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will keep continued warm and dry weather in place through Friday. High temperatures will reach about 5-10 degrees above normal, while low temperatures will be near or slightly above normal values due to the dry atmospheric column. Our first potent fall storm system of the season will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday into Saturday night. This system will be driven by a rather deep mid- and upper-level trough with a neutral tilt pass across the central and eastern CONUS in the Saturday/Sunday period. At surface, low pressure will develop and deepen over the western Ozarks Saturday morning and deepen as it moves northeastward by Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front passing through the region early Sunday morning. Modest Gulf moisture return flow will bring an uptick in humidity levels (mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s) along with temperatures warming into the middle 80s (approaching record levels). There may be two rounds of storms. The first round could be in the form of thunderstorms across southeast MO into southern IL during the afternoon hours Saturday, triggered by a pre-frontal trough. A second, more widespread round looks quite likely ahead of the passage of the cold front Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Rainfall totals have trended down a bit from earlier forecasts, now only expected to reach soaking rain levels of 0.75-1.50" amounts thanks to the progressive nature of the system. The combination of moisture, a potent disturbance, and abnormally warm temperatures will lead to a risk of possible strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. However, confidence remains low for a few reasons. First, there are questions about how much destabilization will be realized. Ensemble guidance is strongly hinting there may be rather persistent EML over the region through much of the day, which would limit instability and storm coverage. Second, there is uncertainty around how much low- and mid-level shear will be available to support organized updrafts. Model guidance is all over the place with the development, timing, and placement of a possible mid-level jet streak, which could help overcome the EML capping. There are similar issues with low-level jet development. It`s possible the ingredients just do not come together in the right time and location to support organized severe thunderstorms. If the two rounds of storms and sufficient instability/shear solutions pan out, the storms that develop Saturday afternoon across Missouri into Illinois could be more discreet, with modest wind, hail, and tornado threats. The second widespread round Saturday night looks to be more of a MCS or squall line, again with low- level wind and spin-up tornado threats. It must be stressed that confidence remains low given the wide envelop of solutions on the table, and things should become a bit clearer in the next 12-24 hours. High pressure will bring a short return of quiet and seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday. However, another chance of showers and possible a few thunderstorms will return to the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. PoPs remain low during this period due to wide envelop of solutions possible, but may trend upward in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle, aside from the possibility of some late night fog around KCGI. Primarily SKC as well, with the exception of a SCT-BKN mid deck that may sneak into EVV/OWB late night into Thursday morning. Calm/light winds tonight will become easterly around 6-8 kts during the day on Thursday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...SP