548
FXUS63 KPAH 270700
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another slight risk of severe storms is forecast today with up
  to a 15% chance of damaging winds, the primary hazard.

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect today whole area, and in effect
  along and west of a line from Fairfield, IL to Cadiz, KY
  Tuesday; Heat Advisory in effect east of that line Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Still active convection is noted across the eastern third of
the FA at this writing. It`s waned from its earlier heights wrt
svr potential, transitioning moreso to a locally heavy rain
threat. It is possible the westward advancing gust front that
just passed KPAH with a peak wind gust of 31 kts may stir up
some convection still to our west, where the higher instability
axis exists. Otherwise a downward trend is anticipated thru the
wee morning hours, then a relative wane in activity settles in
before picking up again as we head into the primary/max heating
hours today. The atmosphere will be juiced similarly to
yesterday toward the end of the afternoon, so as another blast
of vort energy tops the ridge with difluent flow aloft and
heightening CAPE to work with, we`ll largely remain under a
MRGL-SLGT risk for severe. Best shear/energy is removed to the
east Tuesday, so while there will also be a small chance of
storms, they`ll be moreso general risk storms to contend with,
if they can get going Tuesday in the small pop environ. In
summary, dirty NW flow energy topping a ridge and diving into
an extreme heat environ = not good.

Speaking of that extreme heat/humidity, the swath of 80+F dew
points continues to spread/hover over the PAH FA another day
today, and with convective debris cloud cleared early, we`ll see
dangerously high heat indices up to around 115 degrees
materialize region-wide. We`ve therefore upgraded the portion of
the FA still under an Advisory to join the rest of the FA under a
Warning and will have the entirety of the region thus headlined
today, before the east backs off in a return to its Advisory
headline for Tuesday; the west will stay hot/soupy enough to
support another day of up to around 115 degrees, while the east
tops out up to around 105 degrees Tuesday.

As the broad/upper anticyclone retrogrades over the back half of
the week, we`ll see our temperatures and humidity ease off their
extremes. Highs in the 80s and dew points in the 60s will become
more commonplace again, while next rain chances look to hold
off until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Still active convection will offer KPAH/KCGI its turn at bat,
with associated IFR to MVFR restrictions potential, followed by
a general/overall wane in activity thru the earliest morning
hours. As the daytime wears on and heats up, another chance of
storms materializes with a wave of vort energy busting atop the
broad upper ridge and diving its way toward our FA. Additional
restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS will accompany any such development.
Excepting convection`s trends toward detrioration, patchy late
night/early day fog is possible to also include akin flight
restrictions on both ends of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-076-
     080>082-084>086-088>094.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ077-
     078-083-087.
     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ077-078-083-087.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
     Heat Advisory from 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening to 7 PM
     CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>012.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ013>022.
     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ013>022.

&&

$$