416
FXUS63 KPAH 311053
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
553 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will move in tonight, with best chances (60-80%) between
  11pm tonight and midday Sunday. Forecast rainfall totals
  range from 0.25 to 0.75 inches area wide. The heaviest totals
  are expected across west KY into southwest IN.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday,
  then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast
  rainfall totals are in the 0.75 to 1.5 inch range, heaviest
  across SEMO into west KY.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30
  to 40 mph range possible. There is a 60-80% chance of wind
  gusts exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A more unsettled pattern is still on track for the weekend mainly
for tonight into Sunday as rain chances(60-80%) move into the area.
This will be the result of increasing moisture and an ill-
defined/weakening low pressure system passing through the area.
There is about a 60% chance of seeing a a half inch of rain or more,
largely across western Ky into southwest IN. Timing still looks very
similar in keeping most of the Halloween evening dry before rain
arrives around or just after 10-11 pm from the west.

After the weekend precipitation, yet another/stronger upper-level
low and surface low/cold front are expected to approach/move through
the central CONUS Monday night through Wednesday. The surface
reflection of the low continues to trend much farther north with the
latest guidance. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better
chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60-80% chance of
the Quad State seeing three-quarters of an inch or more of rain
Monday night through Wednesday evening. Dewpoints are expected to
increase across the area possibly into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon
as the upper trough and cold front approach the area. The
combination of the added moisture, some instability and shear values
approaching 30-40kts will need to be monitored for the possibility
of strong to severe storms. Overall details remain murky with much
of the upper energy/dynamics remaining well north of the area
and better instability well south. Gusty winds outside of any
thunderstorms will also develop from the south as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. In fact
there is around a 60-80% chance than wind gusts exceed 30 mph
across the area on Tuesday.

Conditions dry out for the end of next week with seasonable
temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions can be expected through the first half of this
TAF issuance as high clouds stream across the TAF sites. The
clouds will lower and thicken late this evening and overnight as
rain showers build in from the southwest. The best chance of
seeing rain at the terminals through 12Z Sunday will be at
CGI/PAH. This will bring IFR ceilings and visibilities around
2-4 miles. Winds will remain light at or less than 10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC