054
FXUS63 KPAH 140616
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
116 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure keeps us dry and seasonally mild for the rest of
  the work week.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances emerge by next weekend and may
  include a risk for strong or severe storms Saturday afternoon-evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The models yield another 60 DM of H5 height rise over the next
24 hours ish, on track with previous modeling. There is little
change to the move of the H5 anticyclone center to our south and
its ridge axis translation across the heart of the FA thru the
work week; similarly for the surface high move from the Great
Lakes across the Ohio Valley. It`ll keep our input circulation
largely northeast to easterly, reinforcing 50s dew points
primarily thru Friday. The net result will be a continuation of
spectacularly pleasant, seasonally mild wx condtions thru
Friday. Daytime highs will run upper 70s to lower half 80s each
day, while nightly lows hover mostly in the lower to middle 50s.

The weekend heralds change on the way. By as early as 00Z Sat
we see the H5 ridge has traversed across the PAH CWA and
it sets itself up as a Bermuda high in short order. Meanwhile
the robust, high amplitude low pressure storm system dives
height falls from Canada into/across the Upper Midwest; these
translate into and over-the-top of the PAH CWA Saturday, as its
associated cold front has taken shape and will then be moving
upon us. The GFS is a little more progressive and the Euro
slower but both concur that over the course of the weekend, the
incoming cold front will focus showers/storm chances and it
looks like our 00Z Friday modeling will feature cold frontal
associated convective chances, most likely Saturday afternoon-
evening. SPC has responded by putting nearly the entirety of
our CWA in a 15% severe weather risk zone for storms that
develop along or ahead of the boundary in the peak heating hours
of Saturday afternoon/evening. Even if the severe weather does
not pan out, we should set the stage with 1-2" modeled QPF as
soundings soup up to 1.75" PW`s ranging upwards to the 99th
percentile PW`s for us this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

High pressure stays strong as the primary synoptic pattern
influence upon our sensible wx. Early morning fog potential
keeps the sustained persistence strategy forecast and short-
lived/temporary vsbys restrictions mentionable in the forecast.
Other than that, diurnal cu bases average 5-7K FT AGL and the
flow remains relatively light out of the northeast or east
predominantly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$