415
FXUS63 KPAH 131710
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another blast of heat is forecast by Tuesday that lasts at
  least through Thursday. High temperatures will reach the
  middle to upper 90s with daily peak heat index values
  potentialy up to around the Heat Advisory level threshold of
  105 degrees, which begins as early as Monday for some of our
  Arkansas/Tennessee border counties.

- Small rain chances along with slightly cooler and less humid
  conditions are expected to arrive by the week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

H5 heights running 590-592 DM today will increase to 596-599 DM
over the next 48-72 hours; that places it on the top of the
E-SAT charts for anamolous height rise this time of year.
Similarly, H8 temps increase 3-4C as a ridging nose of 23C
works overtop the FA, coincident with the setting of the anti-
cyclone`s center just to our southeast and not too far off our
previous heat wave`s H8 temps. Dew points, after a brief
reprieve today-tmrw (for parts of the region), mostly return to
70F+ by Tuesday. The net result will be dangerously high heat
indices in the mid week period, particularly by Tuesday and
extending thru at least Thursday, with daily highs in the mid-
upper 90s combining with 70-75F dews for HI`s topping out close
to/around the Advisory threshold of 105 degrees. LREF only has
10-20% chances of >104F HI`s Tuesday sneaking into the MO
Bootheel, but it`s been a consistent modeling of synoptic
features that suggests the realized ambient air temps, dew
points, and resultant HI`s should in fact approach or potentialy
reach/exceed 105F daily in most locales, despite the ensemble-
clustering tool`s apparant smoothing. Interestingly enough, even
the LREF has a 70-80% chance of HI`s into the triple digits, so
it`s close regardless. And those high temps approach records:

Records vs Fcst Temps...
PAH Tuesday 102 vs 96, Wednesday 97 vs 96, Thursday 98 vs 95
EVV Tuesday 99 vs 97, Wednesday 97 vs 97, Thursday 96 vs 96.

Also note our Ozark counties and potentially nearer the
Bootheel counties see triple digits that flirt with Advisory
thresholds as early as Monday, suggesting duration impacts at
play in some of our south. Then this gets more widespread
beginning Tuesday, and lasting at least thru Thursday. The NWS
Heat Risk Experimental shoots us into Major by Tuesday, where it
more or less holds thru Thursday (with some contraction). After
Thursday, the strength of the ridge is impacted, as our heights
are increasingly muddied down by rimfire from approaching areas
of low pressure both to the north and south of the region. As a
result, while still remaining above the climo normals of
lower-middle 80s for mid Sept highs, we do cool off enough to
preclude the headline worthy triple digit indices of the
previous days, as we come to the week`s conclusion.

Rain chances in the near and long term are small and peripheral
enough so as to regard little mention other than their presence;
this is similar for any night-time patchy fog potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

There continues to be some signal for patchy fog potential in
the late night/early morning hours, in which temporary restrictions
may apply. But otherwise it`ll be a return to Visual Flight
Rules operating conditions daily while high pressure
retains/builds its pattern grip in the coming days.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ107>110-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
     Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KYZ001.

&&

$$