349
FXUS63 KPAH 311838
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
138 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures (low to
  mid 80s) will persist through the holiday weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Tuesday
  through early Thursday. Unfortunately, amounts will be light
  and likely won`t help much with our worsening drought
  situation.

- A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night, bringing
  well below normal temperatures for late in the week. A
  secondary frontal passage later Friday likely will keep the
  cooler temperatures going through next weekend with highs in
  the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025


Conditions remain mostly sunny and pleasant today with surface
temperatures starting to stretch over 80 degrees and dewpoints
in the mid 50s. Broad cyclonic flow aloft, centered over the
eastern Great Lakes region is keeping things fairly cool for
late August and that still looks to remain the dominant driver
in our weather for the foreseeable future.

A weak shortwave travels along the northwest flow aloft on
Monday night into Tuesday. Column moisture increases slightly as
this system passes, but it still looks to remain fairly dry
overall. Almost all guidance generates some precip, but it is
light, and maximum 12-hour PoPs stay below 35-40% which still
looks a little generous given the moisture/lift available.

A second, stronger upper low sweeps into the western Great Lakes
region on Wednesday shoving a cold front towards the area by
Thursday. This gives us another chance of rain, with a little
better column moisture, and cooler temperatures behind the
front. A trough on the backside of that upper low sends a
reinforcing front through the area on Friday into Saturday.
Overall column moisture appears lacking with each of these
passages however. So in general there are 3 separate rain
chances this week, all about 30-40% overall chance, which should
get everyone at least a little bit of rain through the week,
but likely not enough to significant alter current abnormally
dry/drought conditions but should keep humidity/temperatures
relatively pleasant and comfortable through the next 7 days. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Light
northeasterly winds will become lighter overnight. Moisture
profiles currently do not appear favorable for widespread fog
formation overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG